Score vs average
47.3
+1.8 vs league average
116 games
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Straight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.
Dino Paganelli
NFL official stats and assignments
NFL official
NFL official profile
Dino Paganelli
Official · NFL
Flags vs average
12.0
-0.4 vs league average
116 games
Close-game scoring
47.1
-0.2 vs league in tight games
71 close games
How games feel
Typical historical game environment associated with this official. Descriptive history only.
Near-average scoring environment
High evidence
Combined points sit close to the league average (47.3).
League average 45 combined points
Near-average flags volume
High evidence
Flags volume tracks the league baseline (12, +0.0).
League average 12 flags
Standout Atlanta Falcons split
Limited evidence
Atlanta Falcons is 7-4 (63.6%) across 11 games with this official, +19.9 percentage points above the team baseline (43.7%).
Team baseline 43.7% across 87 games
Fewer late-game whistles
High evidence
In close finishes, whistle rate historically drops versus earlier periods after intentional-foul filtering.
Late-game profile: Swallows Whistle
Moderate game-to-game volatility
High evidence
Whistle volume varies moderately game to game in the scouting sample window.
Descriptive stability of whistle volume, not a market forecast
Multi-season sample on file
High evidence
Profile spans 10 seasons in this dataset (2016-17–2025-26).
Team effects versus baseline
Win rate with this official compared with each team's overall win rate in the same seasons on file (2016-17 to 2025-26). A positive delta means the team wins more often with this official assigned; a negative delta means less often. Rows are sorted by the largest absolute gaps. Descriptive history only - not proof of cause. Minimum 8 shared games per row.
| Team | Games | W-L with official | Team baseline | Delta (pp) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 9 | 3-6 (33.3%) | 59.9% | Thin | |
 New Orleans Saints | 9 | 3-6 (33.3%) | 54.3% | Thin | |
 Carolina Panthers | 10 | 2-8 (20.0%) | 37.4% | Thin | |
 Atlanta Falcons | 11 | 7-4 (63.6%) | 46.8% | Thin | |
 San Francisco 49ers | 9 | 6-3 (66.7%) | 51.7% | Thin | |
 Buffalo Bills | 8 | 4-4 (50.0%) | 63.0% | Thin | |
 Los Angeles Chargers | 8 | 3-5 (37.5%) | 49.7% | Thin | |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 8 | 4-4 (50.0%) | 40.6% | Thin | |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 10 | 8-2 (80.0%) | 70.7% | Thin | |
 Los Angeles Rams | 12 | 8-4 (66.7%) | 58.8% | Thin | |
 Baltimore Ravens | 13 | 9-4 (69.2%) | 61.6% | Thin | |
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 11 | 5-6 (45.5%) | 38.2% | Thin |
Historical environment
Scoring, whistle, and stability context from this official's verified sample versus league averages. Descriptive history only. Window: 2021-2026.
League comparison
Combined score
Official 47.3Baseline 45.0+2.3 vs leagueper game
Flags+0.0 vs league
Whistle detail
Whistle profile
Whistle volume, penalty disposition, and high-leverage game-state tendencies.
50
Near-average flag-call profile
Administrative rate (freq)3.9+0.0 vs avg
Impact score (leverage-weighted)Withheld - needs 15 high-leverage subjective events (0 recorded)
Stability
- Sample size
- 116 games
- Seasons on file
- 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Officiating style
Official Dino Paganelli profiles as a game-flow (high subjective ratio) over the last 50 games. Whistle volume stays relatively stable in high-stakes settings.
- 65% subjective vs 35% procedural whistle mix.
- 32 of 50 sample games use event-level foul classification tags.
- Not pressure-sensitive in the last 50 games.
Win/loss and line history
Historical outcome splits
Games116
Avg home score24.5
Avg road score22.9
+1.6
Straight-up home team record when this official works the game.
60-53-1
N=116 games · NFL sample
Pressure
Late-game whistle tendency versus earlier periods. Zero on the scale is the neutral / no-shift anchor for this official (same whistle rate late as earlier), not a league average and not a betting recommendation.
Tight-game proxy
Measures whether this official awards high-usage stars fouls at a higher rate than their seasonal baseline. Positive values mean stars draw more free throws or fouls per game under this ref than their league-wide average across all officials.
Related officials
Explore officials who frequently work with this official or show similar historical officiating patterns.
Frequent crew partners
Officials who have appeared on the same crew most often in the available dataset.
Officials with similar historical profiles
Similarity is descriptive and based on available historical metrics. It does not imply identical decision-making.
- 58.5% over · -0.4 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 57.8% over · -0.6 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 58.3% over · -0.5 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
Pre-Game Context
Refficacy Dimensions
Referee Efficacy Radar
This officialLeague norm (50)
- Star treatment47 index
Whistle treatment toward designated star players in clutch minutes.
- Run stoppages50 index
How often this crew whistles during opponent scoring runs.
- Scoring pace58 index
Combined scoring in this crew's games versus league average.
- Whistle mix62 index
Contact and administrative whistle share relative to league norms.
- Home-side split57 index
Home versus away whistle or cover patterns in this crew's sample.
1 metric excluded due to insufficient event data
Index scores computed from 50 logged games in analysis window
How to read this profile
Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. ATS/O-U results are shown only where external closing-line data is available. Team penalty splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the NFL home page.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2793 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4629/5986 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.