Walk-forward backtests against external closing totals and spreads. We publish results honestly, including when real-line coverage is incomplete. Not betting advice or live picks.
No external-line NBA games in game logs. Backtest not scored.
Walk-forward: ref crew averages exclude target game and later games. High pace: scoring premium ≥ +4 and gap vs closing total ≥ +3. Low pace: scoring premium ≤ −4 and gap ≤ −3. Sample gate: ≥2 qualified refs (30+ games) and non-weak sample.
Backtest not scored yet. Populate external closing lines, then refresh validation (npm run validation:refresh). Requires ODDS_API_KEY for npm run fetch-nba-historical-lines.
No external-line NHL games in game logs. Backtest not scored.
Walk-forward: ref minor averages exclude target game and later games. Signal when index = (refMinorRate − leagueAvgMinors) × specialTeamsEdge × 8 ≥ 0.35. Referees only (25+ prior games). Direction: Over closing total.
Backtest not scored yet. Populate external closing lines, then refresh validation (npm run validation:refresh). Requires ODDS_API_KEY for npm run fetch-nba-historical-lines.