Buffalo Bills

How the Bills play under each referee

Every Bills game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Bills are 112-67 (62.6%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.

Updated Aug 22, 2026, 8:18 p.m.·2016-2026 (2016-09-01 – 2026-01-17)

Bills record: 112-67 (62.6%)

Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (606) exceed 179 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.

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Patrick Turner
+27.4 pts vs team+0.4
David Oliver
+26.3 pts vs team-0.4
Mearl Robinson
+24.9 pts vs team+0.0
Adrian Hill
+17.4 pts vs team+0.1
Don Willard
+15.2 pts vs team+0.6
Clete Blakeman
+12.4 pts vs team+0.0
Carl Paganelli
+12.4 pts vs team+1.9
Tripp Sutter
+12.4 pts vs team-0.9
Brad Allen
+10.1 pts vs team+0.5
Carl Cheffers
+8.8 pts vs team+1.4
Fred Bryan
+7.4 pts vs team-0.6
Jerome Boger
+7.4 pts vs team-0.1
Anthony Flemming
+7.4 pts vs team-0.7
Carl Johnson
+6.6 pts vs team-0.1
Jabir Walker
+6.6 pts vs team+1.6
Greg Bradley
+4.1 pts vs team-0.7
Alan Eck
+4.1 pts vs team+0.1
Mark Pellis
+4.1 pts vs team+0.2
Mark Hittner
+4.1 pts vs team+0.8
Dyrol Prioleau
+4.1 pts vs team+0.8
Dana McKenzie
+4.1 pts vs team+0.6
Rusty Baynes
+4.1 pts vs team+0.8
Ryan Dickson
+4.1 pts vs team-1.6
Jonah Monroe
+1.0 pts vs team+0.0
Allen Baynes
+1.0 pts vs team-0.4
Bill Vinovich
+1.0 pts vs team-0.8
Tom Stephan
-0.1 pts vs team+1.9
Roy Ellison
-0.1 pts vs team+1.0
Eugene Hall
-0.1 pts vs team+1.9
Greg Wilson
-2.6 pts vs team+0.7
Aaron Santi
-2.6 pts vs team+1.0
Tab Slaughter
-2.6 pts vs team+1.1
Alex Kemp
-4.3 pts vs team+1.5
Greg Steed
-4.3 pts vs team+0.7
John Hussey
-4.3 pts vs team+0.2
James Coleman
-4.3 pts vs team-1.1
John Jenkins
-5.5 pts vs team+0.4
Shawn Smith
-5.5 pts vs team-0.1
Jim Mello
-7.0 pts vs team-1.7
Terrence Miles
-7.0 pts vs team+1.1
Julian Mapp
-7.0 pts vs team+0.6
David Meslow
-8.1 pts vs team+0.9
Scott Helverson
-8.1 pts vs team+0.8
Dale Shaw
-8.1 pts vs team-0.1
Keith Washington
-8.1 pts vs team-0.5
Rich Martinez
-12.6 pts vs team+2.0
Jeff Seeman
-12.6 pts vs team+2.0
Michael Banks
-12.6 pts vs team+2.4
Bryan Neale
-12.6 pts vs team+0.3
Dino Paganelli
-12.6 pts vs team+2.8
Perry Paganelli
-12.6 pts vs team+1.8
Steven Woods
-12.6 pts vs team+0.3
Tim Podraza
-12.6 pts vs team+1.0
Terry Killens Jr
-12.6 pts vs team+2.5
Greg Meyer
-17.1 pts vs team+0.2
Patrick Holt
-18.2 pts vs team+1.9
Derick Bowers
-25.1 pts vs team-0.5
Barry Anderson
-25.1 pts vs team-0.1
Craig Wrolstad
-26.2 pts vs team+0.8
Shawn Hochuli
-35.3 pts vs team+1.6

Close-game proxy

How Buffalo Bills compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.

Close games (≤7 pt margin)

85 of 179 games match this window

Avg combined points
Close-game avg
45.7
Season avg
46.1
Pressure impact
-0.4
Avg flags
Close-game avg
12.3
Season avg
12.2
Pressure impact
+0.1
Over rate
Close-game avg
42.4%
Season avg
44.1%
Pressure impact
-1.7 pp

Over benchmark: 46.1 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 179 total games in sample

Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)

What am I looking at?

Individual refs: stats for one official across all Bills games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Bills went 112-67 (62.6%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Bills.

Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2761 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4604/5940 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.