44 games analyzed over 3 seasonsUpdated Sep 30, 2026, 12:31 a.m.Compare
NFL official profile
Jay Bilbo
44 games analyzed over 3 seasons
Official · NFL
Score vs average
46.1
+0.6 vs league average
44 games
Flags vs average
12.4
Near league average
44 games
Close-game scoring
45.6
-0.5 vs league in tight games
27 close games
How games feel
Typical historical game environment associated with this official. Descriptive history only.
Near-average scoring environment
High evidence
Combined points sit close to the league average (46.1).
League average 45 combined points
Near-average flags volume
High evidence
Flags volume tracks the league baseline (12.4, +0.4).
League average 12 flags
Fewer late-game whistles
High evidence
In close finishes, whistle rate historically drops versus earlier periods after intentional-foul filtering.
Late-game profile: Swallows Whistle
Moderate game-to-game volatility
High evidence
Whistle volume varies moderately game to game in the scouting sample window.
Descriptive stability of whistle volume, not a market forecast
Multi-season sample on file
High evidence
Profile spans 3 seasons in this dataset (2023-24–2025-26).
Team effects versus baseline
Team performance comparisons are withheld until same-window team baselines clear sample gates. Raw records alone can overstate the official's relationship with strong or weak teams.
Historical environment
Scoring, whistle, and stability context from this official's verified sample versus league averages. Descriptive history only. Window: 2021-2026.
League comparison
Combined score
Official 46.1·Baseline 45.0·+1.1 vs leagueper game
Flags+0.4 vs league
Baseline 12.0·Official 12.4·per game · near baseline
More flags than the nfl official baseline (+0.4 per game).
Over-benchmark rate 52.3% on verified closing lines in this dataset.
Whistle detail
Whistle profile
Whistle volume, penalty disposition, and high-leverage game-state tendencies.
High-leverage impact+2.4 vs 8.2 league avg47% of flags high/critical · 26 PBP-backed games
Flags per game
-0.3 vs 12.8 avg
Penalty yards
-1.7 vs 102.9 avg
Flag imbalance
2.4
Avg |home − away| flags
Balance profile
asymmetric
45.5% within 1 flag
High-leverage impact
+2.4 vs 8.2 league avg
Data confidence: High264 high-leverage minMinimum: 50 min
Stability
Sample size
44 games
Seasons on file
2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Officiating style
Official Jay Bilbo profiles as a balanced whistle mix over the last 44 games. Whistle volume stays relatively stable in high-stakes settings.
Balanced whistle mix · NFL
Loose / Game-FlowStrict / Rule-Enforcer
64% subjective, 36% procedural
64% subjective vs 36% procedural whistle mix.
26 of 44 sample games use event-level foul classification tags.
Not pressure-sensitive in the last 44 games.
Win/loss and line history
Straight-up and line-linked outcome history when provenance allows. Not a recommendation.
Historical outcome splits
Games44
Avg home score24.5
Avg road score21.9
+2.6
Straight-up home team record when this official works the game.
Straight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.
22-20
52.4% home win rate
N=44 games · NFL sample
Pressure
Late-game whistle tendency versus earlier periods. Zero on the scale is the neutral / no-shift anchor for this official (same whistle rate late as earlier), not a league average and not a betting recommendation.
Late-game whistle tendency
Swallows Whistle
Swallows whistleNeutral (0)Tightens up
Leverage index: -47% vs earlier periods (0 = no late-game shift)
Swallows the whistle: foul frequency historically drops in late close-game minutes after intentional-foul filtering. Neutral anchor is zero change versus earlier periods.
Swallows whistle means late close-game whistle rate is lower than earlier periods after intentional-foul filtering. Historical tendency only.
Tight-game proxy
Supporting evidence from close finishes in the verified sample.
Close-game proxy
How Jay Bilbo compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
27 of 44 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
45.6
Season avg
46.1
Pressure impact
-0.5
Avg flags
Close-game avg
13
Season avg
12.4
Pressure impact
+0.6
Over rate
Close-game avg
40.7%
Season avg
45.5%
Pressure impact
-4.8 pp
Over benchmark: 44 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 44 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
28 of 44 games match this window
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
47.8
Season avg
46.1
Pressure impact
+1.7
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
12.6
Season avg
12.4
Pressure impact
+0.2
Over rate
Toss-up avg
53.6%
Season avg
45.5%
Pressure impact
+8.1 pp
Over benchmark: 44 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 44 total games in sample
Measures whether this official awards high-usage stars fouls at a higher rate than their seasonal baseline. Positive values mean stars draw more free throws or fouls per game under this ref than their league-wide average across all officials.
Related officials
Explore officials who frequently work with this official or show similar historical officiating patterns.
Frequent crew partners
Officials who have appeared on the same crew most often in the available dataset.
52.9% over · +0.0 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
Pre-Game Context
Refficacy Dimensions
Referee Efficacy Radar
44 games · 0-100 index where 50 marks league norm. Higher is not automatically better.
This officialLeague norm (50)
Star treatment59 index
50
Whistle treatment toward designated star players in clutch minutes.
Run stoppages50 index
50
How often this crew whistles during opponent scoring runs.
Scoring pace53 index
50
Combined scoring in this crew's games versus league average.
Whistle mix63 index
50
Contact and administrative whistle share relative to league norms.
Home-side split60 index
50
Home versus away whistle or cover patterns in this crew's sample.
1 metric excluded due to insufficient event data
How to read this profile
Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. ATS/O-U results are shown only where external closing-line data is available. Team penalty splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the NFL home page.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2793 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4629/5986 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
Jay Bilbo NFL Official Stats & Assignments | Ref Watch