Every Falcons game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Falcons are 80-91 (46.8%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Updated Aug 22, 2026, 7:26 p.m.·2016-2026 (2016-09-01 – 2026-01-04)
Falcons record: 80-91 (46.8%)
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (599) exceed 171 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Atlanta Falcons compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
94 of 171 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
48
Season avg
47.4
Pressure impact
+0.6
Avg flags
Close-game avg
12.4
Season avg
12.3
Pressure impact
+0.1
Over rate
Close-game avg
51.1%
Season avg
46.8%
Pressure impact
+4.3 pp
Over benchmark: 47.4 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 171 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
127 of 171 games match this window
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
46.9
Season avg
47.4
Pressure impact
-0.5
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
12.3
Season avg
12.3
Pressure impact
+0.0
Over rate
Toss-up avg
46.5%
Season avg
46.8%
Pressure impact
-0.3 pp
Over benchmark: 47.4 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 171 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Falcons games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Falcons went 80-91 (46.8%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Falcons.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2761 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4604/5940 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
Atlanta Falcons: NFL referee crew splits | Ref Watch