Every Panthers game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Panthers are 64-107 (37.4%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Rick Patterson has the most Panthers games in this sample (15).
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (571) exceed 171 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Carolina Panthers compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
78 of 171 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
45.9
Season avg
45.2
Pressure impact
+0.7
Avg flags
Close-game avg
12.5
Season avg
12.2
Pressure impact
+0.3
Over rate
Close-game avg
50.0%
Season avg
48.0%
Pressure impact
+2.0 pp
Over benchmark: 45.2 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 171 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Panthers games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Panthers went 64-107 (37.4%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Panthers.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2793 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4629/5986 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
118 of 171 games match this window
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
44.9
Season avg
45.2
Pressure impact
-0.3
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
12.3
Season avg
12.2
Pressure impact
+0.1
Over rate
Toss-up avg
49.2%
Season avg
48.0%
Pressure impact
+1.2 pp
Over benchmark: 45.2 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 171 total games in sample