REF WATCH

Ref crew analytics before the game

Free signals · sample-gated · no picks
NBANHL

NHL ref data

Historical crew patterns, ref profiles, and team histories while the slate is paused.

Offseason — historical data only. Live slate returns when the NHL season resumes.

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Season highlights

  1. 1. Wes McCauley pushes 8.7% of games to OT/SO

    Moderate

    Wes McCauley reaches overtime or shootout 8.7% of the time (39 of 448 games) — 14.3 pts below the 23.0% league rate.

    448 games · 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26

  2. 2. NHL games lean under the goal benchmark

    Moderate

    3 of 45 officials (7%) trend under 6.2 combined goals more often than over. Only 41 refs run the other way.

    45 refs · 6,560 games · seeded data

  3. 3. 1.6-goal spread between hottest and coldest ref–team pairs

    Moderate

    Highest: Garrett Rank on Tampa Bay Lightning (7.8 avg). Lowest: Graham Skilliter on Utah Hockey Club (6.2 avg).

    Min 8 games per pair · 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26

  4. 4. Kyle Rehman leans overs vs closing goal totals

    Moderate

    Totals go overs 50.1% (214-213) across 427 lined games.

    427 O/U decisions · synthetic lines · 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26

  5. 5. Home teams cover 50.1% ATS with Kyle Rehman

    Moderate

    214-213 across 427 lined games — 0.1 pts from a neutral 50% split.

    427 ATS decisions · synthetic lines · 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26

Dataset findings

Top patterns ranked by effect size and sample size — not tied to tonight's slate.

Historical line data unavailable for some games — see Methodology for details.

View all findings →

Ref outlier · Finding 1

Wes McCauley pushes 8.7% of games to OT/SO

Wes McCauley reaches overtime or shootout 8.7% of the time (39 of 448 games) — 14.3 pts below the 23.0% league rate.

OT/SO rate
8.7%
39 OT/SO games
League OT rate
23.0%
Pool baseline
Sample
448
Min 30 games

448 games · 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26

Wes McCauley →

League trend · Finding 2

NHL games lean under the goal benchmark

3 of 45 officials (7%) trend under 6.2 combined goals more often than over. Only 41 refs run the other way.

Why it matters: League-wide over rate is 52.6% (games-weighted). In a neutral coin-flip world you'd expect ~50%; this sample tilts toward unders on totals.

Refs trending under
3/45
7% of pool
Games over benchmark
52.6%
Games-weighted · 50% = neutral
Games analyzed
6,560
2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26

45 refs · 6,560 games · seeded data

Browse NHL refs →

O/U edge · Finding 4

Kyle Rehman leans overs vs closing goal totals

Totals go overs 50.1% (214-213) across 427 lined games.

Why it matters: O/U ATS uses synthetic closing totals in this seeded dataset. Min 30 decisive games required.

O/U ATS
214-213
50.1%
Sample
427
Min 30 games
Edge vs 50%
0.1 pts
Leans overs

427 O/U decisions · synthetic lines · 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26

Kyle Rehman →
1 more finding

ATS edge · Finding 5

Home teams cover 50.1% ATS with Kyle Rehman

214-213 across 427 lined games — 0.1 pts from a neutral 50% split.

Home ATS
214-213
50.1%
Sample
427
Min 30 games
Edge vs 50%
0.1 pts
Absolute deviation

427 ATS decisions · synthetic lines · 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26

Kyle Rehman →
Methodology
  • Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size, with sample gates (30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions).
  • Goals above averageHow many goals above or below league average this crew’s games tend to score — a pace signal for totals, not a betting pick.How many goals above or below league average this crew’s games tend to score — a pace signal for totals, not a betting pick. — crew avg combined goals minus league baseline (6.2).
  • PP PremiumPre-game index: referee minor-penalty rate × both teams’ power-play strength minus penalty-kill strength. High values flag special-teams volatility — often a totals Over angle, not a pick by itself.Pre-game index: referee minor-penalty rate × both teams’ power-play strength minus penalty-kill strength. High values flag special-teams volatility — often a totals Over angle, not a pick by itself. and High OT rateThis referee pair’s OT rate is above league average on a tight puck line (±1.5). Useful context for OT/SO props when the book offers them — sample-gated.This referee pair’s OT rate is above league average on a tight puck line (±1.5). Useful context for OT/SO props when the book offers them — sample-gated. use sportsbook lines on live slates where available.
  • Seasons covered: 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 (6,560 games).

  • Ref Watch Pro (coming soon) — automated slate alerts, line-move tracking, and deeper crew reunion stats. Join the waitlist.