NBA officiating desk
NBA refereeing stats, analyzed.
Official profiles, foul rates, and ref×team histories across every indexed ref.
Last 10 seasons
2025-26 team records: final regular season per Basketball-Reference (audited Jul 2026).
Browse the dataset
Tendency index, ref×team matrix, franchise histories, and official profiles on multi-season data.
Offseason deep dive
Jump to any ref, team, or tool. Historical data is live across the full dataset.
Season highlights
Last 10 seasons · 2016-10-25 – 2026-04-12
Ranked historical edges with over/under signals, ordered by effect size and sample depth.
Strong-confidence patterns first; thin samples sink to the bottom. Within each tier, ranked by effect size and sample depth.
- 41.4
- Fouls per game
- +1.9 vs league avg
- 50.2%
- Over benchmark
- 572 games
- 226.2
- Avg combined score
- +3.0 vs 222
- 41.4
- Fouls per game
- +1.9 vs league avg
- 50.2%
- Over benchmark
- 572 games
- 226.2
- Avg combined score
- +3.0 vs 222
Mitchell Ervin averages 41.4 fouls (+1.9 vs league) yet only 50.2% of games beat 222 points.
- 77/109
- Refs mostly under
- Personal over rate < 50%
- 45.1%
- Games over benchmark
- 54.9% under · 50% = neutral
- 11,979
- Games analyzed
- 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Why it matters: Two different cuts of the same data: each ref's personal over rate asks whether they beat the 222 combined pts in most of their games; the league-wide share counts every game individually. A ref can lean over while many of their games still go under. This uses a fixed benchmark, not sportsbook pricing.
- 77/109
- Refs mostly under
- Personal over rate < 50%
- 45.1%
- Games over benchmark
- 54.9% under · 50% = neutral
- 11,979
- Games analyzed
- 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Why it matters: Two different cuts of the same data: each ref's personal over rate asks whether they beat the 222 combined pts in most of their games; the league-wide share counts every game individually. A ref can lean over while many of their games still go under. This uses a fixed benchmark, not sportsbook pricing.
77 of 109 officials (71%) finish under the 222 combined pts line in a majority of their own games (personal over rate below 50%). Across all 11,979 games, 45.1% cleared the benchmark and 54.9% went under.
- 17.5%
- Over benchmark
- 120 games
- 209.6
- Avg combined total
- -13.6 vs league
- 32.5 pts
- Delta vs 50%
- Leans under
- 17.5%
- Over benchmark
- 120 games
- 209.6
- Avg combined total
- -13.6 vs league
- 32.5 pts
- Delta vs 50%
- Leans under
17.5% of Derrick Stafford's 120 games finish under 222 combined pts, 32.5 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
- -13.6
- Scoring delta
- vs 222 league avg
- 17.5%
- Over benchmark
- 120 games
- 39
- Avg fouls
- -0.5 vs league
- -13.6
- Scoring delta
- vs 222 league avg
- 17.5%
- Over benchmark
- 120 games
- 39
- Avg fouls
- -0.5 vs league
Derrick Stafford's 120 games average 209.6 combined points (17.5% over 222), one of the largest scoring deltas in the pool.
Historical tendencies only, with sample gates, confidence tiers, and transparent methodology. Not betting advice.
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