Every Patriots game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Patriots are 108-72 (60.0%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Updated Aug 22, 2026, 7:26 p.m.·2016-2026 (2016-09-01 – 2026-02-08)
Patriots record: 108-72 (60.0%)
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (573) exceed 180 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How New England Patriots compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
79 of 180 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
43.7
Season avg
43.5
Pressure impact
+0.2
Avg flags
Close-game avg
12
Season avg
11.4
Pressure impact
+0.6
Over rate
Close-game avg
54.4%
Season avg
53.9%
Pressure impact
+0.5 pp
Over benchmark: 43.5 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 180 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
108 of 180 games match this window
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
42.3
Season avg
43.5
Pressure impact
-1.2
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
11.6
Season avg
11.4
Pressure impact
+0.2
Over rate
Toss-up avg
45.4%
Season avg
53.9%
Pressure impact
-8.5 pp
Over benchmark: 43.5 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 180 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Patriots games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Patriots went 108-72 (60.0%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Patriots.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2761 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4604/5940 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
New England Patriots: NFL referee crew splits | Ref Watch