Every Jaguars game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Jaguars are 66-107 (38.2%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Patrick Turner has the most Jaguars games in this sample (15).
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (592) exceed 173 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Jacksonville Jaguars compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
82 of 173 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
43.4
Season avg
43.8
Pressure impact
-0.4
Avg flags
Close-game avg
13.1
Season avg
12.7
Pressure impact
+0.4
Over rate
Close-game avg
57.3%
Season avg
56.6%
Pressure impact
+0.7 pp
Over benchmark: 43.8 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 173 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
126 of 173 games match this window
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
44
Season avg
43.8
Pressure impact
+0.2
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
12.9
Season avg
12.7
Pressure impact
+0.2
Over rate
Toss-up avg
54.0%
Season avg
56.6%
Pressure impact
-2.6 pp
Over benchmark: 43.8 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 173 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Jaguars games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Jaguars went 66-107 (38.2%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Jaguars.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2793 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4629/5986 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.