NFL09/09
Ref×team split · N=9
Jacksonville Jaguars
How the Jaguars play under each referee
Every Jaguars game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Jaguars are 65-106 (38.0%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Standout team-official split
The strongest verified team-official win-rate pattern for the Jaguars in the current sample.
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (576) exceed 171 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
Close-game proxy
How Jacksonville Jaguars compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
81 of 171 games match this window
Avg combined points
- Close-game avg
- 43.4
- Season avg
- 43.8
- Pressure impact
- -0.4
Avg flags
- Close-game avg
- 13
- Season avg
- 12.7
- Pressure impact
- +0.3
Over rate
- Close-game avg
- 56.8%
- Season avg
- 56.1%
- Pressure impact
- +0.7 pp
Over benchmark: 43.8 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 171 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
What am I looking at?
- Individual refs: stats for one official across all Jaguars games they worked, even with different partners.
- Team baseline: the Jaguars went 65-106 (38.0%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
- Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Jaguars.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2761 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4604/5940 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.