128 games analyzed over 10 seasonsUpdated Sep 30, 2026, 12:23 a.m.Compare
NFL official profile
Paul King
128 games analyzed over 10 seasons
Official · NFL
Score vs average
46.0
+0.5 vs league average
128 games
Flags vs average
11.8
-0.6 vs league average
128 games
Over rate
57.8%
League baseline 44.0
128 games
Team effects versus baseline
Team performance comparisons are withheld until same-window team baselines clear sample gates. Raw records alone can overstate the official's relationship with strong or weak teams.
Historical environment
Scoring, whistle, and stability context from this official's verified sample versus league averages. Descriptive history only. Window: 2021-2026.
League comparison
Combined score
Official 46.0·Baseline 45.0·+1.0 vs leagueper game
Flags-0.2 vs league
Baseline 12.0·Official 11.8·per game · near baseline
Fewer flags than the nfl official baseline (-0.2 per game).
Over-benchmark rate 57.8% on verified closing lines in this dataset.
Whistle detail
Whistle profile
Whistle volume, penalty disposition, and high-leverage game-state tendencies.
Straight-up and line-linked outcome history when provenance allows. Not a recommendation.
Historical outcome splits
Games128
Avg home score23.6
Avg road score22.4
+1.2
Straight-up home team record when this official works the game.
Straight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.
59-62-3
47.6% home win rate
N=128 games · NFL sample
Measures whether this official awards high-usage stars fouls at a higher rate than their seasonal baseline. Positive values mean stars draw more free throws or fouls per game under this ref than their league-wide average across all officials.
Related officials
Explore officials who frequently work with this official or show similar historical officiating patterns.
Officials with similar historical profiles
Similarity is descriptive and based on available historical metrics. It does not imply identical decision-making.
58.4% over · -0.6 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
Pre-Game Context
Refficacy Dimensions
Referee Efficacy Radar
128 games · 0-100 index where 50 marks league norm. Higher is not automatically better.
This officialLeague norm (50)
Star treatment36 index
50
Whistle treatment toward designated star players in clutch minutes.
Scoring pace52 index
50
Combined scoring in this crew's games versus league average.
Home-side split47 index
50
Home versus away whistle or cover patterns in this crew's sample.
3 metrics excluded due to insufficient event data
How to read this profile
Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. ATS/O-U results are shown only where external closing-line data is available. Team penalty splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the NFL home page.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2793 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4629/5986 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.