Score vs average
44.0
-1.5 vs league average
180 games
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Straight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.
Adrian Hill
#29NFL official stats and assignments
NFL official #29
NFL official profile
Adrian Hill
Official · NFL
Flags vs average
12.9
+0.5 vs league average
180 games
Close-game scoring
44.5
+0.5 vs league in tight games
94 close games
How games feel
Typical historical game environment associated with this official. Descriptive history only.
Near-average scoring environment
High evidence
Combined points sit close to the league average (44).
League average 45 combined points
Near-average flags volume
High evidence
Flags volume tracks the league baseline (12.9, +0.9).
League average 12 flags
Standout Jacksonville Jaguars split
Limited evidence
Jacksonville Jaguars is 1-10 (9.1%) across 11 games with this official, -35.3 percentage points below the team baseline (44.4%).
Team baseline 44.4% across 90 games
Fewer late-game whistles
High evidence
In close finishes, whistle rate historically drops versus earlier periods after intentional-foul filtering.
Late-game profile: Swallows Whistle
High game-to-game volatility
High evidence
Whistle volume swings more game to game than most peers in the scouting sample window.
Descriptive stability of whistle volume, not a market forecast
Multi-season sample on file
High evidence
Profile spans 10 seasons in this dataset (2016-17–2025-26).
Team effects versus baseline
Win rate with this official compared with each team's overall win rate in the same seasons on file (2016-17 to 2025-26). A positive delta means the team wins more often with this official assigned; a negative delta means less often. Rows are sorted by the largest absolute gaps. Descriptive history only - not proof of cause. Minimum 8 shared games per row.
| Team | Games | W-L with official | Team baseline | Delta (pp) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 11 | 1-10 (9.1%) | 38.2% | Thin | |
 Indianapolis Colts | 8 | 6-2 (75.0%) | 46.8% | Thin | |
 Baltimore Ravens | 9 | 8-1 (88.9%) | 61.6% | Thin | |
 Los Angeles Rams | 12 | 4-8 (33.3%) | 58.8% | Thin | |
 Chicago Bears | 12 | 8-4 (66.7%) | 41.3% | Thin | |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 13 | 2-11 (15.4%) | 40.6% | Thin | |
 New England Patriots | 8 | 3-5 (37.5%) | 59.9% | Thin | |
 New York Giants | 17 | 2-15 (11.8%) | 33.9% | Thin | |
 Dallas Cowboys | 13 | 10-3 (76.9%) | 57.5% | Thin | |
 New Orleans Saints | 11 | 4-7 (36.4%) | 54.3% | Thin | |
 Buffalo Bills | 10 | 8-2 (80.0%) | 63.0% | Thin | |
 Atlanta Falcons | 11 | 7-4 (63.6%) | 46.8% | Thin |
Historical environment
Scoring, whistle, and stability context from this official's verified sample versus league averages. Descriptive history only. Window: 2021-2026.
League comparison
Combined score
Official 44.0Baseline 45.0-1.0 vs leagueper game
Flags+0.7 vs league
Whistle detail
Whistle profile
Whistle volume, penalty disposition, and high-leverage game-state tendencies.
57
Near-average flag-call profile
Administrative rate (freq)3.9+0.0 vs avg
Impact score (leverage-weighted)Withheld - needs 15 high-leverage subjective events (0 recorded)
Stability
- Sample size
- 180 games
- Seasons on file
- 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Officiating style
Official Adrian Hill profiles as a balanced whistle mix over the last 50 games. Tends to call 14% more subjective flags in recent sample. Whistle volume stays relatively stable in high-stakes settings.
- 65% subjective vs 35% procedural whistle mix.
- 28 of 50 sample games use event-level foul classification tags.
- Not pressure-sensitive in the last 50 games.
Win/loss and line history
Historical outcome splits
Games180
Avg home score23.1
Avg road score21.0
+2.1
Straight-up home team record when this official works the game.
101-81-1
N=180 games · NFL sample
Pressure
Late-game whistle tendency versus earlier periods. Zero on the scale is the neutral / no-shift anchor for this official (same whistle rate late as earlier), not a league average and not a betting recommendation.
Tight-game proxy
Measures whether this official awards high-usage stars fouls at a higher rate than their seasonal baseline. Positive values mean stars draw more free throws or fouls per game under this ref than their league-wide average across all officials.
Related officials
Explore officials who frequently work with this official or show similar historical officiating patterns.
Frequent crew partners
Officials who have appeared on the same crew most often in the available dataset.
Officials with similar historical profiles
Similarity is descriptive and based on available historical metrics. It does not imply identical decision-making.
- 54.2% over · +0.4 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 53.7% over · +0.5 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 53.7% over · +0.4 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
Pre-Game Context
Refficacy Dimensions
Referee Efficacy Radar
This officialLeague norm (50)
- Star treatment86 index
Whistle treatment toward designated star players in clutch minutes.
- Run stoppages40 index
How often this crew whistles during opponent scoring runs.
- Scoring pace43 index
Combined scoring in this crew's games versus league average.
- Whistle mix62 index
Contact and administrative whistle share relative to league norms.
- Home-side split56 index
Home versus away whistle or cover patterns in this crew's sample.
1 metric excluded due to insufficient event data
Index scores computed from 50 logged games in analysis window
How to read this profile
Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. ATS/O-U results are shown only where external closing-line data is available. Team penalty splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the NFL home page.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2793 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4629/5986 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.