NFL09/09
Ref×team split · N=9
Indianapolis Colts
How the Colts play under each referee
Every Colts game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Colts are 80-1-88 (47.3%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Standout team-official split
The strongest verified team-official win-rate pattern for the Colts in the current sample.
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (463) exceed 169 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
Close-game proxy
How Indianapolis Colts compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
91 of 169 games match this window
Avg combined points
- Close-game avg
- 46.2
- Season avg
- 47.1
- Pressure impact
- -0.9
Avg flags
- Close-game avg
- 12.7
- Season avg
- 12
- Pressure impact
- +0.7
Over rate
- Close-game avg
- 45.1%
- Season avg
- 47.3%
- Pressure impact
- -2.2 pp
Over benchmark: 47.1 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 169 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
134 of 169 games match this window
Avg combined points
- Toss-up avg
- 47
- Season avg
- 47.1
- Pressure impact
- -0.1
Avg flags
- Toss-up avg
- 12.2
- Season avg
- 12
- Pressure impact
- +0.2
Over rate
- Toss-up avg
- 48.5%
- Season avg
- 47.3%
- Pressure impact
- +1.2 pp
Over benchmark: 47.1 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 169 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
- Individual refs: stats for one official across all Colts games they worked, even with different partners.
- Team baseline: the Colts went 80-1-88 (47.3%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
- Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Colts.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2761 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4604/5940 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.