66-57
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Straight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.
Don Willard
NFL official stats and assignments
NFL official
NFL
Don Willard
High game-to-game volatility
Historically associated with near-average scoring, near-average flags volume, reduced late-game whistle frequency.
How games feel
Typical historical game environment associated with this official. Descriptive history only.
Near-average scoring environment
High evidence
Combined points sit close to the league average (46.2).
League average 45.2 combined points
Near-average flags volume
High evidence
Flags volume tracks the league baseline (11.7, -0.2).
League average 11.9 flags
Standout Indianapolis Colts split
Limited evidence
Indianapolis Colts is 9-2 (81.8%) across 11 games with this official, +37.1 percentage points above the team baseline (44.7%).
Team baseline 44.7% across 85 games
Fewer late-game whistles
High evidence
In close finishes, whistle rate historically drops versus earlier periods after intentional-foul filtering.
Late-game profile: Swallows Whistle
High game-to-game volatility
High evidence
Consistency score 4/10 on whistle volume across the scouting sample window.
Descriptive stability of whistle volume, not a market forecast
Multi-season sample on file
High evidence
Profile spans 8 seasons in this dataset (2018-19–2025-26).
Historical environment
Scoring, whistle, and stability context from this official's verified sample versus league averages. Descriptive history only. Window: 2021-2026.
League comparison
Combined score
Official 46.2Baseline 45.2+1.0 vs leagueper game
Flags-0.2 vs league
Whistle detail
Whistle profile
Whistle volume, penalty disposition, and high-leverage game-state tendencies.
48
Near-average flag-call profile
Administrative rate (freq)3.7+0.0 vs avg
Impact score (leverage-weighted)Withheld - needs 15 high-leverage subjective events (0 recorded)
Stability
- Sample size
- 123 games
- Seasons on file
- 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
- Consistency
- 4/10
Officiating style
Official Don Willard profiles as a game-flow (high subjective ratio) over the last 50 games. Whistle volume stays relatively stable in high-stakes settings.
- 66% subjective vs 34% procedural whistle mix.
- 33 of 50 sample games use event-level foul classification tags.
- Not pressure-sensitive in the last 50 games.
Win/loss and line history
Historical outcome splits
Games123
Avg home score23.7
Avg road score22.5
+1.2
Straight-up home team record when this official works the game.
N=123 games · NFL sample
Pressure
Late-game whistle tendency versus earlier periods. Zero on the scale is the neutral / no-shift anchor for this official (same whistle rate late as earlier), not a league average and not a betting recommendation.
Tight-game proxy
Team effects versus baseline
Each row compares a team's win rate with this official to that team's overall win rate in the same dataset window (2016-17 to 2025-26). Sorted by absolute delta. Descriptive history only - not a measure of cause. Minimum 8 shared games per row.
| Team | Games | W-L with official | Team baseline | Delta (pp) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York Jets | 9 | 6-3 (66.7%) | 29.5% | Thin | |
 Indianapolis Colts | 11 | 9-2 (81.8%) | 47.3% | Thin | |
 Miami Dolphins | 11 | 2-9 (18.2%) | 48.5% | Thin | |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 8 | 7-1 (87.5%) | 61.7% | Thin | |
 Tennessee Titans | 9 | 2-7 (22.2%) | 47.4% | Thin | |
 Dallas Cowboys | 9 | 3-6 (33.3%) | 57.0% | Thin | |
 Chicago Bears | 11 | 7-4 (63.6%) | 41.2% | Thin | |
 Washington Commanders | 10 | 2-8 (20.0%) | 41.7% | Thin | |
 New York Giants | 8 | 1-7 (12.5%) | 33.7% | Thin | |
 Arizona Cardinals | 10 | 2-8 (20.0%) | 36.9% | Thin | |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 8 | 2-6 (25.0%) | 40.5% | Thin | |
 Buffalo Bills | 9 | 7-2 (77.8%) | 62.6% | Thin |
Measures whether this official awards high-usage stars fouls at a higher rate than their seasonal baseline. Positive values mean stars draw more free throws or fouls per game under this ref than their league-wide average across all officials.
Career
Career evolution
Season timeline of archetype and late-game sensitivity, with detailed metrics below.
- 2025-26Insufficient sample
- 2024-25Insufficient sample
- 2023-24Insufficient sample
- 2022-23Insufficient sample
- 2021-22Insufficient sample
- 2020-21Insufficient sample
- 2019-20Insufficient sample
- 2018-19Insufficient sample
| Season | Style bucket derived from procedural vs. subjective foul mix and game-flow impact. Helps frame whether this ref tends to let play breathe or enforce structure. | Foul Ratio | How much an official's whistle rate shifts in close, late-game situations compared with the rest of the game. Positive values suggest they tighten up under pressure. | 1-10 rating of how predictable this official's whistle volume is game to game. Higher scores mean steadier pacing; lower scores flag more volatile totals markets. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2024-25 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2023-24 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2022-23 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2021-22 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2020-21 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2019-20 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2018-19 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
Related officials
Explore officials who frequently work with this official or show similar historical officiating patterns.
Frequent crew partners
Officials who have appeared on the same crew most often in the available dataset.
Officials with similar historical profiles
Similarity is descriptive and based on available historical metrics. It does not imply identical decision-making.
- 60.0% over · -0.6 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 63.2% over · -0.6 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 58.7% over · -0.6 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
Pre-Game Context
Refficacy Dimensions
Referee Efficacy Radar
This officialLeague norm (50)
- Star treatment78 index
Whistle treatment toward designated star players in clutch minutes.
- Run stoppages40 index
How often this crew whistles during opponent scoring runs.
- Scoring pace53 index
Combined scoring in this crew's games versus league average.
- Whistle mix62 index
Contact and administrative whistle share relative to league norms.
- Home-side split48 index
Home versus away whistle or cover patterns in this crew's sample.
1 metric excluded due to insufficient event data
Index scores computed from 50 logged games in analysis window
Quick compare
How to read this profile
Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. Where sportsbook closing lines are unavailable, ATS/O/U splits use estimated lines. Team penalty splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the NFL home page.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2761 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4604/5940 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.