NFL09/09
Ref×team split · N=11
Miami Dolphins
How the Dolphins play under each referee
Every Dolphins game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Dolphins are 82-87 (48.5%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Standout team-official split
The strongest verified team-official win-rate pattern for the Dolphins in the current sample.
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (558) exceed 169 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
Close-game proxy
How Miami Dolphins compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
71 of 169 games match this window
Avg combined points
- Close-game avg
- 47.1
- Season avg
- 45.9
- Pressure impact
- +1.2
Avg flags
- Close-game avg
- 13.4
- Season avg
- 12.8
- Pressure impact
- +0.6
Over rate
- Close-game avg
- 56.3%
- Season avg
- 48.5%
- Pressure impact
- +7.8 pp
Over benchmark: 45.9 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 169 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
130 of 169 games match this window
Avg combined points
- Toss-up avg
- 44.6
- Season avg
- 45.9
- Pressure impact
- -1.3
Avg flags
- Toss-up avg
- 12.9
- Season avg
- 12.8
- Pressure impact
- +0.1
Over rate
- Toss-up avg
- 43.8%
- Season avg
- 48.5%
- Pressure impact
- -4.7 pp
Over benchmark: 45.9 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 169 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
- Individual refs: stats for one official across all Dolphins games they worked, even with different partners.
- Team baseline: the Dolphins went 82-87 (48.5%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
- Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Dolphins.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2761 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4604/5940 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.