Every Titans game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Titans are 83-90 (48.0%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Kent Payne has the most Titans games in this sample (16).
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (560) exceed 173 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Tennessee Titans compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
87 of 173 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
42.2
Season avg
44.3
Pressure impact
-2.1
Avg flags
Close-game avg
13.7
Season avg
13.4
Pressure impact
+0.3
Over rate
Close-game avg
37.9%
Season avg
45.1%
Pressure impact
-7.2 pp
Over benchmark: 44.3 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 173 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
118 of 173 games match this window
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
44
Season avg
44.3
Pressure impact
-0.3
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
13.4
Season avg
13.4
Pressure impact
+0.0
Over rate
Toss-up avg
45.8%
Season avg
45.1%
Pressure impact
+0.7 pp
Over benchmark: 44.3 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 173 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Titans games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Titans went 83-90 (48.0%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Titans.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2793 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4629/5986 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.