Every Capitals game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Capitals are 442-339 (56.6%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Kelly Sutherland has the most Capitals games in this sample (61).
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (1527) exceed 781 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Washington Capitals compares in one-goal and overtime games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Overtime / shootout games
173 of 781 games match this window
Avg combined goals
OT/shootout avg
6.5
Season avg
6.2
Pressure impact
+0.3
Avg minors
OT/shootout avg
15.7
Season avg
17.5
Pressure impact
-1.8
Over rate
OT/shootout avg
55.5%
Season avg
46.0%
Pressure impact
+9.5 pp
Over benchmark: 6.2 combined goals · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 781 total games in sample
One-goal or OT games
315 of 781 games match this window
Avg combined goals
One-goal/OT avg
5.9
Season avg
6.2
Pressure impact
-0.3
Avg minors
One-goal/OT avg
15.8
Season avg
17.5
Pressure impact
-1.7
Over rate
One-goal/OT avg
45.7%
Season avg
46.0%
Pressure impact
-0.3 pp
Over benchmark: 6.2 combined goals · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 781 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Capitals games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Capitals went 442-339 (56.6%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: PIM differential. A positive number means opponents are penalized more often than the Capitals.
Scores, PIM, and crews from NHL API. ATS/O-U from synthetic closing lines derived from final scores (12282/12282 games). Descriptive only, not market odds. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
Washington Capitals: NHL referee crew splits | Ref Watch