Goals vs average
6.0
-0.1 vs league average
215 games
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Straight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.
Brad Watson
NHL official stats and assignments
NHL official
NHL official profile
Brad Watson
Official · NHL
Minors vs average
7.8
-0.3 vs league average
215 games
Close-game scoring
5.9
-0.1 vs league in tight games
50 close games
How games feel
Typical historical game environment associated with this official. Descriptive history only.
Near-average scoring environment
High evidence
Combined goals sit close to the league average (6).
League average 6.1 combined goals
Near-average penalties volume
High evidence
Penalties volume tracks the league baseline (7.8, -0.3).
League average 8.1 penalties
Standout Senators split
Limited evidence
Senators is 10-2 (83.3%) across 12 games with this official, +35.0 percentage points above the team baseline (48.3%).
Team baseline 48.3% across 410 games
Fewer late-game whistles
High evidence
In close finishes, whistle rate historically drops versus earlier periods after intentional-foul filtering.
Late-game profile: Swallows Whistle
High game-to-game volatility
High evidence
Consistency score 1/10 on whistle volume across the scouting sample window.
Descriptive stability of whistle volume, not a market forecast
Multi-season sample on file
High evidence
Profile spans 3 seasons in this dataset (2016-17–2018-19).
Historical environment
Scoring, whistle, and stability context from this official's verified sample versus league averages. Descriptive history only. Window: 2021-2026.
League comparison
Combined score
Official 6.0Baseline 6.3-0.1 vs leagueper game
Minor penalties-0.8 vs league
Whistle detail
Whistle profile
Whistle volume, penalty disposition, and high-leverage game-state tendencies.
38
Near-average penalty-call profile
Administrative rate (freq)1.1+0.0 vs avg
Impact score (leverage-weighted)Withheld - needs 15 high-leverage subjective events (0 recorded)
Stability
- Sample size
- 215 games
- Seasons on file
- 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19
- Consistency
- 1/10
Officiating style
Official Brad Watson profiles as a game-flow (high subjective ratio) over the last 50 games. Tends to call 10% more subjective minors in recent sample. Whistle volume stays relatively stable in high-stakes settings.
- 86% subjective vs 14% procedural whistle mix.
- Not pressure-sensitive in the last 50 games.
Win/loss and line history
Historical outcome splits
Games215
Avg home score3.2
Avg road score2.8
+0.3
Straight-up home team record when this official works the game.
120-95
N=215 games · NHL sample
Pressure
Late-game whistle tendency versus earlier periods. Zero on the scale is the neutral / no-shift anchor for this official (same whistle rate late as earlier), not a league average and not a betting recommendation.
Tight-game proxy
Career by season
Career evolution
Season timeline of archetype and late-game sensitivity, with detailed metrics below.
- 2018-19Limited sample
- 2017-18Limited sample
- 2016-17Limited sample
| Season | Style bucket derived from procedural vs. subjective foul mix and game-flow impact. Helps frame whether this ref tends to let play breathe or enforce structure. | Foul Ratio | How much an official's whistle rate shifts in close, late-game situations compared with the rest of the game. Positive values suggest they tighten up under pressure. | 1-10 rating of how predictable this official's whistle volume is game to game. Higher scores mean steadier pacing; lower scores flag more volatile totals markets. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-19 | Limited sample (68 games). Not enough for season classification (needs 10). | |||
| 2017-18 | Limited sample (73 games). Not enough for season classification (needs 10). | |||
| 2016-17 | Limited sample (74 games). Not enough for season classification (needs 10). | |||
Team effects versus baseline
Each row compares a team's win rate with this official to that team's overall win rate in the same dataset window (2016-17 to 2025-26). Sorted by absolute delta. Descriptive history only - not a measure of cause. Minimum 8 shared games per row.
| Team | Games | W-L with official | Team baseline | Delta (pp) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Senators | 12 | 10-2 (83.3%) | 44.3% | Thin | |
 Penguins | 12 | 3-9 (25.0%) | 53.4% | Thin | |
 Flames | 15 | 4-11 (26.7%) | 50.5% | Thin | |
 Blackhawks | 16 | 10-6 (62.5%) | 39.1% | Thin | |
 Capitals | 11 | 4-7 (36.4%) | 56.6% | Thin | |
 Bruins | 17 | 7-10 (41.2%) | 59.0% | Thin | |
 Blue Jackets | 11 | 7-4 (63.6%) | 46.3% | Thin | |
 Ducks | 17 | 10-7 (58.8%) | 42.1% | Thin | |
 Oilers | 17 | 12-5 (70.6%) | 54.5% | Thin | |
 Hockey Club | 15 | 4-11 (26.7%) | 41.6% | Thin | |
 Maple Leafs | 12 | 5-7 (41.7%) | 56.3% | Thin | |
 Islanders | 14 | 5-9 (35.7%) | 49.6% | Thin |
Related officials
Explore officials who frequently work with this official or show similar historical officiating patterns.
Frequent crew partners
Officials who have appeared on the same crew most often in the available dataset.
Officials with similar historical profiles
Similarity is descriptive and based on available historical metrics. It does not imply identical decision-making.
- 33.9% over · -0.3 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 34.6% over · -0.4 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 35.5% over · -0.3 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
Pre-Game Context
Refficacy Dimensions
Referee Efficacy Radar
This officialLeague norm (50)
- Run stoppages10 index
How often this crew whistles during opponent scoring runs.
- Scoring pace50 index
Combined scoring in this crew's games versus league average.
- Whistle mix64 index
Contact and administrative whistle share relative to league norms.
- Home-side split50 index
Home versus away whistle or cover patterns in this crew's sample.
2 metrics excluded due to insufficient event data
Index scores computed from 50 logged games in analysis window
How to read this profile
Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. Where sportsbook closing lines are unavailable, ATS/O/U splits use estimated lines. Team PIM splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the NHL home page.
Scores, PIM, and crews from NHL API. ATS/O-U from synthetic closing lines derived from final scores (12282/12282 games). Descriptive only, not market odds. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.