League baseline

6.3 combined goals17.7 minor penalties per gamebenchmark 6.3 (O/U comparison threshold (matches observed average in this scope))

Whistle extreme

Marc Joannette runs 2.3 fewer minors than league average

Sample: 442 games • Data maturity: High

14.8minors per game

-2.3 vs 17.1 league avg

Official 14.8 per gameLeague avg 17.1

14.8
minors per game: -2.3vs 17.1 league avg; 35.3%
Under benchmark: 6.1 goals; 5.9
Avg combined goals: -0.2vs league

Whistle pace compares minors volume to the league average in this dataset. High or low foul counts do not automatically predict scoring or spread outcomes. Sample depth is strong (100+ games in this finding).

View evidence

High-confidence findings

#2
League trend
2025-26 vs 2024-25: league scoring and whistle context
6.3 goals2025-26 avg total
1,312 games
Sample: 2,624 games • Data maturity: High
League scoring held steady year over year (2024-25 to 2025-26).
View evidence
#3
Marquee efficiency
Graedy Hamilton runs lower on overs in marquee games
36.2%Marquee over rate
47 marquee games · vs 66.7% baseline
0%50%100%
Sample: 47 games • Data maturity: High
Prime-time and high-profile slate: 36.2% over rate (47 games) vs 66.7% baseline, -30.5 pts.
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#4
Ref outlier
Mike Leggo leads the pool on under frequency
27.7%Under benchmark
65 games
0%50% neutral100%
Sample: 65 games • Data maturity: High
27.7% of Mike Leggo's 65 games finish under 6.1 combined goals, 22.3 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
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#5
Whistle extreme
Mike Leggo runs 1.2 fewer minors than league average
7.2Minors per team
-1.2 vs 8.3 league avg
Official 7.2 per gameLeague avg 8.3
Sample: 65 games • Data maturity: High
Mike Leggo averages 7.2 two-minute minors per team per game (-1.2 vs league) across 65 games.
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#6
Ref outlier
Dave Jackson pushes 13.8% of games to OT/SO
13.8%OT/SO rate
9 OT/SO games
0%50%100%
Sample: 65 games • Data maturity: High
Dave Jackson reaches overtime or shootout 13.8% of the time (9 of 65 games), 11.0 pts below the 24.8% league rate.
View evidence
#7
O/U historical tendency
Evgeny Romasko leans unders vs closing goal totals
9-22-5O/U ATS
25.0%
Sample: 31 games • Data maturity: High
Totals go unders 25.0% (9-22-5) across 31 lined games.
View evidence
#8
ATS historical tendency
Riley Brace: ATS Cover Lean (57.1%)
20-14-1Home ATS
57.1%
Sample: 34 games • Data maturity: High
20-14-1 across 34 lined games, 8.8 pts from a neutral 50% split.
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#9
Ref outlier
Mike Leggo runs -0.9 on combined scoring
-0.9Scoring delta
vs 6.1 league avg
LowerLeague avgHigher
Sample: 65 games • Data maturity: High
Mike Leggo's 65 games average 5.2 combined goals (27.7% over 6.1), one of the largest scoring deltas in the pool.
View evidence

These are descriptive historical associations. They do not establish causation or predict individual games.

NHL officiating research

More in this league

Marc Joannette runs 2.3 fewer minors than league average

High-confidence findings

2025-26 vs 2024-25: league scoring and whistle context

Graedy Hamilton runs lower on overs in marquee games

Mike Leggo leads the pool on under frequency

Mike Leggo runs 1.2 fewer minors than league average

Dave Jackson pushes 13.8% of games to OT/SO

Evgeny Romasko leans unders vs closing goal totals

Riley Brace: ATS Cover Lean (57.1%)

Mike Leggo runs -0.9 on combined scoring