Goals vs average
6.0
-0.1 vs league average
661 games
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Straight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.
Tom Chmielewski
#18NHL official stats and assignments
NHL official #18
NHL official profile
Tom Chmielewski
Official · NHL
Minors vs average
8.2
-0.3 vs league average
661 games
Close-game scoring
6.2
+0.2 vs league in tight games
144 close games
How games feel
Typical historical game environment associated with this official. Descriptive history only.
Near-average scoring environment
High evidence
Combined goals sit close to the league average (6).
League average 6.3 combined goals
Below-average penalties volume
High evidence
Averaged 8.2 penalties per game (-9.3 vs league).
League average 17.5 penalties
Standout Blue Jackets split
Moderate evidence
Blue Jackets is 21-14 (60.0%) across 35 games with this official, +18.8 percentage points above the team baseline (41.2%).
Team baseline 41.2% across 410 games
Fewer late-game whistles
High evidence
In close finishes, whistle rate historically drops versus earlier periods after intentional-foul filtering.
Late-game profile: Swallows Whistle
High game-to-game volatility
High evidence
Whistle volume swings more game to game than most peers in the scouting sample window.
Descriptive stability of whistle volume, not a market forecast
Multi-season sample on file
High evidence
Profile spans 10 seasons in this dataset (2016-17–2025-26).
Team effects versus baseline
Win rate with this official compared with each team's overall win rate in the same seasons on file (2016-17 to 2025-26). A positive delta means the team wins more often with this official assigned; a negative delta means less often. Rows are sorted by the largest absolute gaps. Descriptive history only - not proof of cause. Minimum 8 shared games per row.
| Team | Games | W-L with official | Team baseline | Delta (pp) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Blue Jackets | 35 | 21-14 (60.0%) | 46.3% | Moderate | |
 Flyers | 29 | 17-12 (58.6%) | 45.3% | Moderate | |
 Stars | 43 | 18-25 (41.9%) | 54.3% | Moderate | |
 Capitals | 36 | 16-20 (44.4%) | 56.6% | Moderate | |
 Blues | 43 | 18-25 (41.9%) | 52.9% | Moderate | |
 Devils | 38 | 13-25 (34.2%) | 44.9% | Moderate | |
 Panthers | 40 | 26-14 (65.0%) | 54.5% | Moderate | |
 Jets | 37 | 24-13 (64.9%) | 55.4% | Moderate | |
 Penguins | 34 | 15-19 (44.1%) | 53.4% | Moderate | |
 Red Wings | 38 | 12-26 (31.6%) | 40.7% | Moderate | |
 Canucks | 51 | 27-24 (52.9%) | 44.3% | Moderate | |
 Sabres | 32 | 11-21 (34.4%) | 42.9% | Moderate |
Historical environment
Scoring, whistle, and stability context from this official's verified sample versus league averages. Descriptive history only. Window: 2021-2026.
League comparison
Combined score
Official 6.0Baseline 6.3-0.3 vs leagueper game
Minor penalties-0.4 vs league
Whistle detail
Whistle profile
Whistle volume, penalty disposition, and high-leverage game-state tendencies.
44
Near-average penalty-call profile
Administrative rate (freq)1.1+0.0 vs avg
Impact score (leverage-weighted)Withheld - needs 15 high-leverage subjective events (0 recorded)
Stability
- Sample size
- 661 games
- Seasons on file
- 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Officiating style
Official Tom Chmielewski profiles as a game-flow (high subjective ratio) over the last 50 games. Tends to call 26% fewer subjective minors in recent sample. Whistle volume stays relatively stable in high-stakes settings.
- 86% subjective vs 14% procedural whistle mix.
- Not pressure-sensitive in the last 50 games.
Win/loss and line history
Historical outcome splits
Games661
Avg home score3.2
Avg road score2.9
+0.3
Straight-up home team record when this official works the game.
359-302
N=661 games · NHL sample
Pressure
Late-game whistle tendency versus earlier periods. Zero on the scale is the neutral / no-shift anchor for this official (same whistle rate late as earlier), not a league average and not a betting recommendation.
Tight-game proxy
Related officials
Explore officials who frequently work with this official or show similar historical officiating patterns.
Frequent crew partners
Officials who have appeared on the same crew most often in the available dataset.
Officials with similar historical profiles
Similarity is descriptive and based on available historical metrics. It does not imply identical decision-making.
- 37.1% over · -0.3 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 36.5% over · -0.2 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 36.4% over · -0.2 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
Pre-Game Context
Refficacy Dimensions
Referee Efficacy Radar
This officialLeague norm (50)
- Run stoppages10 index
How often this crew whistles during opponent scoring runs.
- Scoring pace50 index
Combined scoring in this crew's games versus league average.
- Whistle mix64 index
Contact and administrative whistle share relative to league norms.
- Home-side split49 index
Home versus away whistle or cover patterns in this crew's sample.
2 metrics excluded due to insufficient event data
Index scores computed from 50 logged games in analysis window
How to read this profile
Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. ATS/O-U results are shown only where external closing-line data is available. Team PIM splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the NHL home page.
Scores, PIM, and crews from NHL API. ATS/O-U from synthetic closing lines derived from final scores (12282/12282 games). Descriptive only, not market odds. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.