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Tampa Bay Lightning

How the Lightning play under each ref or ref crew

Every Lightning game grouped by individual official, or by the same four officials on the ice. Over this sample the Lightning are 223-197 (53.1%); each ref and crew win rate below is compared to that team average.

Updated Jul 7, 2026, 4:50 p.m.Lightning record: 223-197 (53.1%)

Notable patterns

  • Whistle pattern

    Crews with Wes McCauley, Chris Rooney, Derek Nansen, and Bryan Pancich whistle the Lightning 2.3 more minor penalties per game than opponents in the Lightning matchups (15 games).

    15 games in sample

    Wes McCauley profile →

  • Scoring pattern

    In the Lightning games with Brad Kovachik, contests average 7.2 combined goals (-0.1 vs league), 66.2% finish over the 7.3-goal benchmark across 71 games.

    71 games in sample

    Brad Kovachik profile →

Bevan Mills

11 games with the Lightning · ~8-3

Win rate

72.7%

Team baseline 53.1%

+19.6 pts vs team
Totals

6.7 avg

36.4% over 7.3

-0.6 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.1

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Ryan Daisy

29 games with the Lightning · ~21-8

Win rate

72.4%

Team baseline 53.1%

+19.3 pts vs team
Totals

7.3 avg

55.2% over 7.3

+0.0 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.1

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Furman South

16 games with the Lightning · ~11-5

Win rate

68.8%

Team baseline 53.1%

+15.7 pts vs team
Totals

7.3 avg

50.0% over 7.3

+0.0 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.4

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Wes McCauley

28 games with the Lightning · ~18-10

Win rate

64.3%

Team baseline 53.1%

+11.2 pts vs team
Totals

7.3 avg

64.3% over 7.3

+0.0 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+1.4

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

TBL tendency

Steve Barton

14 games with the Lightning · ~9-5

Win rate

64.3%

Team baseline 53.1%

+11.2 pts vs team
Totals

7 avg

57.1% over 7.3

-0.3 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.3

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Kelly Sutherland

53 games with the Lightning · ~32-21

Win rate

60.4%

Team baseline 53.1%

+7.3 pts vs team
Totals

7.1 avg

54.7% over 7.3

-0.2 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.4

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Dan O'Rourke

20 games with the Lightning · ~12-8

Win rate

60.0%

Team baseline 53.1%

+6.9 pts vs team
Totals

7.6 avg

65.0% over 7.3

+0.3 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.2

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Ghislain Hebert

10 games with the Lightning · ~6-4

Win rate

60.0%

Team baseline 53.1%

+6.9 pts vs team
Totals

7.2 avg

70.0% over 7.3

-0.1 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.2

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Chris Lee

69 games with the Lightning · ~41-28

Win rate

59.4%

Team baseline 53.1%

+6.3 pts vs team
Totals

7.2 avg

60.9% over 7.3

-0.1 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.0

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Brian Pochmara

32 games with the Lightning · ~19-13

Win rate

59.4%

Team baseline 53.1%

+6.3 pts vs team
Totals

7.2 avg

59.4% over 7.3

-0.1 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.2

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Jonny Murray

36 games with the Lightning · ~21-15

Win rate

58.3%

Team baseline 53.1%

+5.2 pts vs team
Totals

7.2 avg

58.3% over 7.3

-0.1 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.9

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Tom Chmielewski

31 games with the Lightning · ~18-13

Win rate

58.1%

Team baseline 53.1%

+5.0 pts vs team
Totals

7 avg

54.8% over 7.3

-0.3 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.9

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Derek Nansen

69 games with the Lightning · ~40-29

Win rate

58.0%

Team baseline 53.1%

+4.9 pts vs team
Totals

7.3 avg

60.9% over 7.3

+0.0 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.7

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Steve Kozari

28 games with the Lightning · ~16-12

Win rate

57.1%

Team baseline 53.1%

+4.0 pts vs team
Totals

7.3 avg

64.3% over 7.3

+0.0 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.0

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Bryan Pancich

58 games with the Lightning · ~33-25

Win rate

56.9%

Team baseline 53.1%

+3.8 pts vs team
Totals

7.1 avg

56.9% over 7.3

-0.2 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.8

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Brad Kovachik

71 games with the Lightning · ~40-31

Win rate

56.3%

Team baseline 53.1%

+3.2 pts vs team
Totals

7.2 avg

66.2% over 7.3

-0.1 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.5

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Trent Knorr

36 games with the Lightning · ~20-16

Win rate

55.6%

Team baseline 53.1%

+2.5 pts vs team
Totals

7.1 avg

55.6% over 7.3

-0.2 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.5

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Trevor Hanson

33 games with the Lightning · ~18-15

Win rate

54.5%

Team baseline 53.1%

+1.4 pts vs team
Totals

7 avg

72.7% over 7.3

-0.3 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-1.0

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Chris Rooney

48 games with the Lightning · ~26-22

Win rate

54.2%

Team baseline 53.1%

+1.1 pts vs team
Totals

7.3 avg

68.8% over 7.3

+0.0 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.8

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Peter MacDougall

15 games with the Lightning · ~8-7

Win rate

53.3%

Team baseline 53.1%

+0.2 pts vs team
Totals

7.5 avg

66.7% over 7.3

+0.2 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.9

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Ryan Gibbons

17 games with the Lightning · ~9-8

Win rate

52.9%

Team baseline 53.1%

-0.2 pts vs team
Totals

7 avg

47.1% over 7.3

-0.3 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.1

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Garrett Rank

21 games with the Lightning · ~11-10

Win rate

52.4%

Team baseline 53.1%

-0.7 pts vs team
Totals

7 avg

66.7% over 7.3

-0.3 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+1.5

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

TBL tendency

Eric Furlatt

44 games with the Lightning · ~23-21

Win rate

52.3%

Team baseline 53.1%

-0.8 pts vs team
Totals

7.2 avg

56.8% over 7.3

-0.1 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.7

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Kyle Rehman

69 games with the Lightning · ~36-33

Win rate

52.2%

Team baseline 53.1%

-0.9 pts vs team
Totals

7 avg

55.1% over 7.3

-0.3 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.5

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Matt MacPherson

118 games with the Lightning · ~61-57

Win rate

51.7%

Team baseline 53.1%

-1.4 pts vs team
Totals

7.1 avg

55.9% over 7.3

-0.2 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.0

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Kiel Murchison

58 games with the Lightning · ~30-28

Win rate

51.7%

Team baseline 53.1%

-1.4 pts vs team
Totals

7.2 avg

62.1% over 7.3

-0.1 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.1

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Jon McIsaac

43 games with the Lightning · ~22-21

Win rate

51.2%

Team baseline 53.1%

-1.9 pts vs team
Totals

7.2 avg

67.4% over 7.3

-0.1 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.5

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Shandor Alphonso

41 games with the Lightning · ~21-20

Win rate

51.2%

Team baseline 53.1%

-1.9 pts vs team
Totals

7 avg

63.4% over 7.3

-0.3 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.9

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Scott Cherrey

71 games with the Lightning · ~36-35

Win rate

50.7%

Team baseline 53.1%

-2.4 pts vs team
Totals

7 avg

60.6% over 7.3

-0.3 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.4

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Francis Charron

73 games with the Lightning · ~36-37

Win rate

49.3%

Team baseline 53.1%

-3.8 pts vs team
Totals

7.1 avg

58.9% over 7.3

-0.2 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.1

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Graham Skilliter

35 games with the Lightning · ~17-18

Win rate

48.6%

Team baseline 53.1%

-4.5 pts vs team
Totals

7 avg

60.0% over 7.3

-0.3 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.8

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Devin Berg

32 games with the Lightning · ~15-17

Win rate

46.9%

Team baseline 53.1%

-6.2 pts vs team
Totals

7.2 avg

53.1% over 7.3

-0.1 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.4

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Mark Shewchyk

56 games with the Lightning · ~26-30

Win rate

46.4%

Team baseline 53.1%

-6.7 pts vs team
Totals

7.3 avg

58.9% over 7.3

+0.0 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.4

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

David Brisebois

13 games with the Lightning · ~6-7

Win rate

46.2%

Team baseline 53.1%

-6.9 pts vs team
Totals

7 avg

76.9% over 7.3

-0.3 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.4

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Brandon Gawryletz

35 games with the Lightning · ~16-19

Win rate

45.7%

Team baseline 53.1%

-7.4 pts vs team
Totals

6.8 avg

51.4% over 7.3

-0.5 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.2

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Jean Hebert

44 games with the Lightning · ~20-24

Win rate

45.5%

Team baseline 53.1%

-7.6 pts vs team
Totals

7.4 avg

45.5% over 7.3

+0.1 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.0

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Michel Cormier

75 games with the Lightning · ~34-41

Win rate

45.3%

Team baseline 53.1%

-7.8 pts vs team
Totals

7.1 avg

64.0% over 7.3

-0.2 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.3

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

TJ Luxmore

31 games with the Lightning · ~14-17

Win rate

45.2%

Team baseline 53.1%

-7.9 pts vs team
Totals

6.7 avg

41.9% over 7.3

-0.6 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.3

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Jake Brenk

40 games with the Lightning · ~18-22

Win rate

45.0%

Team baseline 53.1%

-8.1 pts vs team
Totals

7.1 avg

57.5% over 7.3

-0.2 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.4

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Gord Dwyer

20 games with the Lightning · ~9-11

Win rate

45.0%

Team baseline 53.1%

-8.1 pts vs team
Totals

6.5 avg

50.0% over 7.3

-0.8 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

+0.3

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Frederick L'Ecuyer

37 games with the Lightning · ~15-22

Win rate

40.5%

Team baseline 53.1%

-12.6 pts vs team
Totals

7.1 avg

59.5% over 7.3

-0.2 vs league
Whistle differentialAverage fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).Average fouls on one team minus the opponent per game. Positive means that team is whistled less (or the opponent more).

-0.7

More fouls on the Lightning's opponents when positive

Balanced

Late-game proxy

How Tampa Bay Lightning compares in competitive late-game windows vs full games. Proxy windowsA competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels.A competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels., not official NBA L2M reports.

Overtime / shootout games

Games that required extra time; the clearest late-game pressure proxy in our logs. Includes OT and SO scoring.

91 of 420 games match this window

Derived from historical game logs · proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play

MetricOvertime / shootout gamesFull gameΔ vs full
Avg combined goals7.87.1+0.7
Avg PIM14.614.9-0.3
Over rate48.4%37.6%+10.8 pts

Over benchmark: 7.3 combined goals · Seasons: 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 420 total games in sample

One-goal or OT games

Regulation one-goal games plus any overtime, competitive games where third-period whistles matter most.

206 of 420 games match this window

Derived from historical game logs · proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play

MetricOne-goal or OT gamesFull gameΔ vs full
Avg combined goals7.37.1+0.2
Avg PIM14.914.9+0.0
Over rate33.5%37.6%-4.1 pts

Over benchmark: 7.3 combined goals · Seasons: 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 420 total games in sample

What am I looking at?
  • Individual refs: stats for one official across all Lightning games they worked, even with different partners.
  • Ref crews: stats when the same four officials worked together on the Lightning games (5+ games shown by default).
  • Team baseline: the Lightning went 223-197 (53.1%) across this sample. Ref and crew win rates show how they compare to that team average.
  • Whistle differential: PIM differential. A positive number means opponents are penalized more often than the Lightning.

Historical stats are still loading for some teams; check back after the next data refresh.

League-wide ref profiles

Matt MacPherson61.2% over 7.3Mark Shewchyk62.5% over 7.3Francis Charron61.9% over 7.3Michel Cormier62.4% over 7.3Chris Lee62.3% over 7.3Scott Cherrey59.1% over 7.3Derek Nansen62.9% over 7.3Eric Furlatt60.5% over 7.3Kiel Murchison62.8% over 7.3Brad Kovachik59.7% over 7.3Kyle Rehman61.8% over 7.3Bryan Pancich62.2% over 7.3