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Evidence-first read: conclusion first, then methodology, measured deltas, and sample limits.
Conclusion
Riley Brace: ATS Cover Lean (57.1%)
20-14-1 across 34 lined games, 8.8 pts from a neutral 50% split.
Rule and category
ats edge
Strong- and moderate-confidence patterns only. Ranked by effect size within each tier.
Evidence
Measured deltas in sample
- Home ATS: 20-14-1 (57.1%)
- Sample: 34 (Min 30 games)
- Edge vs 50%: 8.8 pts (Absolute deviation)
Related context
Profiles and splits to verify
Follow linked officials and teams to see whether adjacent samples support or contradict this pattern. Unresolved splits stay descriptive until sample gates clear.
Uncertainty
Sample and limits
Sample: 34 games over 10 seasons (2016–2026)
Historical context
Where this sits in the dataset
Ranked with other NHL findings by effect size and sample depth. Use the tendency index and team-with-official history table for broader crew history after reading the measured deltas above.
- Home ATS
- 20-14-1
- 57.1%
- Sample
- 34
- Min 30 games
- Edge vs 50%
- 8.8 pts
- Absolute deviation
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →