NHL ·
Evidence-first read: conclusion first, then methodology, measured deltas, and sample limits.
Conclusion
Graedy Hamilton runs lower on overs in marquee games
Prime-time and high-profile slate: 36.2% over rate (47 games) vs 66.7% baseline, -30.5 pts.
Rule and category
marquee efficiency
Marquee games flagged by objective metadata. Marquee over-rate 95% CI: 24-50%. Descriptive split only.
Evidence
Measured deltas in sample
- Marquee over rate: 36.2% (47 marquee games · vs 66.7% baseline)
- Baseline over rate: 66.7% (9 non-marquee games)
- Marquee minors: 17.0 (-2.7 vs 19.8 baseline)
Related context
Profiles and splits to verify
Follow linked officials and teams to see whether adjacent samples support or contradict this pattern. Unresolved splits stay descriptive until sample gates clear.
Uncertainty
Sample and limits
Sample: 47 games over 10 seasons (2016–2026)
Historical context
Where this sits in the dataset
Ranked with other NHL findings by effect size and sample depth. Use the tendency index and team-with-official history table for broader crew history after reading the measured deltas above.
- Marquee over rate
- 36.2%
- 47 marquee games · vs 66.7% baseline
- Baseline over rate
- 66.7%
- 9 non-marquee games
- Marquee minors
- 17.0
- -2.7 vs 19.8 baseline
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →