Every Vikings game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Vikings are 101-1-70 (58.7%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Bill Vinovich has the most Vikings games in this sample (14).
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (544) exceed 172 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Minnesota Vikings compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
84 of 172 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
47.2
Season avg
44.8
Pressure impact
+2.4
Avg flags
Close-game avg
12.1
Season avg
12.3
Pressure impact
-0.2
Over rate
Close-game avg
65.5%
Season avg
51.7%
Pressure impact
+13.8 pp
Over benchmark: 44.8 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 172 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Vikings games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Vikings went 101-1-70 (58.7%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Vikings.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2793 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4629/5986 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
138 of 172 games match this window
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
45.4
Season avg
44.8
Pressure impact
+0.6
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
12.4
Season avg
12.3
Pressure impact
+0.1
Over rate
Toss-up avg
53.6%
Season avg
51.7%
Pressure impact
+1.9 pp
Over benchmark: 44.8 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 172 total games in sample