Score vs average
46.9
+1.4 vs league average
105 games
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Straight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.
Nathan Jones
NFL official stats and assignments
NFL official
NFL official profile
Nathan Jones
Official · NFL
Flags vs average
11.7
-0.6 vs league average
105 games
Close-game scoring
48.8
+1.9 vs league in tight games
53 close games
How games feel
Typical historical game environment associated with this official. Descriptive history only.
Near-average scoring environment
High evidence
Combined points sit close to the league average (46.9).
League average 45 combined points
Near-average flags volume
High evidence
Flags volume tracks the league baseline (11.7, -0.3).
League average 12 flags
Standout Las Vegas Raiders split
Limited evidence
Las Vegas Raiders is 5-3 (62.5%) across 8 games with this official, +26.1 percentage points above the team baseline (36.4%).
Team baseline 36.4% across 88 games
Fewer late-game whistles
High evidence
In close finishes, whistle rate historically drops versus earlier periods after intentional-foul filtering.
Late-game profile: Swallows Whistle
High game-to-game volatility
High evidence
Whistle volume swings more game to game than most peers in the scouting sample window.
Descriptive stability of whistle volume, not a market forecast
Multi-season sample on file
High evidence
Profile spans 7 seasons in this dataset (2019-20–2025-26).
Team effects versus baseline
Win rate with this official compared with each team's overall win rate in the same seasons on file (2016-17 to 2025-26). A positive delta means the team wins more often with this official assigned; a negative delta means less often. Rows are sorted by the largest absolute gaps. Descriptive history only - not proof of cause. Minimum 8 shared games per row.
| Team | Games | W-L with official | Team baseline | Delta (pp) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 10 | 2-8 (20.0%) | 46.6% | Thin | |
 Las Vegas Raiders | 8 | 5-3 (62.5%) | 40.6% | Thin | |
 Seattle Seahawks | 9 | 7-2 (77.8%) | 60.8% | Thin | |
 San Francisco 49ers | 10 | 4-6 (40.0%) | 51.7% | Thin | |
 Green Bay Packers | 10 | 5-5 (50.0%) | 58.2% | Thin | |
 Kansas City Chiefs | 11 | 7-4 (63.6%) | 70.7% | Thin | |
 Minnesota Vikings | 8 | 5-3 (62.5%) | 58.7% | Thin | |
 Philadelphia Eagles | 8 | 5-3 (62.5%) | 61.0% | Thin | |
 New Orleans Saints | 9 | 5-4 (55.6%) | 54.3% | Thin | |
 Baltimore Ravens | 8 | 5-3 (62.5%) | 61.6% | Thin |
Historical environment
Scoring, whistle, and stability context from this official's verified sample versus league averages. Descriptive history only. Window: 2021-2026.
League comparison
Combined score
Official 46.9Baseline 45.0+1.9 vs leagueper game
Flags-0.3 vs league
Whistle detail
Whistle profile
Whistle volume, penalty disposition, and high-leverage game-state tendencies.
47
Near-average flag-call profile
Administrative rate (freq)3.9+0.0 vs avg
Impact score (leverage-weighted)Withheld - needs 15 high-leverage subjective events (0 recorded)
Stability
- Sample size
- 105 games
- Seasons on file
- 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Officiating style
Official Nathan Jones profiles as a game-flow (high subjective ratio) over the last 50 games. Whistle volume stays relatively stable in high-stakes settings.
- 65% subjective vs 35% procedural whistle mix.
- 32 of 50 sample games use event-level foul classification tags.
- Not pressure-sensitive in the last 50 games.
Win/loss and line history
Historical outcome splits
Games105
Avg home score25.5
Avg road score21.7
+3.8
Straight-up home team record when this official works the game.
62-42
N=105 games · NFL sample
Pressure
Late-game whistle tendency versus earlier periods. Zero on the scale is the neutral / no-shift anchor for this official (same whistle rate late as earlier), not a league average and not a betting recommendation.
Tight-game proxy
Related officials
Explore officials who frequently work with this official or show similar historical officiating patterns.
Frequent crew partners
Officials who have appeared on the same crew most often in the available dataset.
Officials with similar historical profiles
Similarity is descriptive and based on available historical metrics. It does not imply identical decision-making.
- 57.1% over · -0.6 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 57.8% over · -0.6 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 57.9% over · -0.6 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
Pre-Game Context
Refficacy Dimensions
Referee Efficacy Radar
This officialLeague norm (50)
- Run stoppages20 index
How often this crew whistles during opponent scoring runs.
- Scoring pace57 index
Combined scoring in this crew's games versus league average.
- Whistle mix62 index
Contact and administrative whistle share relative to league norms.
- Home-side split53 index
Home versus away whistle or cover patterns in this crew's sample.
2 metrics excluded due to insufficient event data
Index scores computed from 50 logged games in analysis window
How to read this profile
Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. ATS/O-U results are shown only where external closing-line data is available. Team penalty splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the NFL home page.
Ref×team W-L rebuilt from 2793 ESPN game logs (2016-2026). 4629/5986 ref×team pairs meet the 3+ game matrix gate. Ties are excluded from straight-up W-L. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.