Officiating intelligence for the third team on the field.
Ranked Bundesliga officiating patterns from the Ref Watch dataset, with effect sizes, sample sizes, and links to evidence.
4 high-confidence findings
League baseline
3.2 combined goals21.1 cards shown per gamebenchmark 2.9 (O/U comparison threshold (matches observed average in this scope))
#1
League trend
Sample: 576 games • Data maturity: High
3.2 goals2025-26 avg total
270 games
Year-over-year context from 5 seasons (1,281 total games). League-wide baselines, not ref-specific. Sample depth is strong (100+ games in this finding).
#2
Ref outlier
70.4%Over benchmark
54 games
Sample: 54 games • Data maturity: High
70.4% of Matthias Jöllenbeck's 54 games finish over 3.2 combined goals, 20.4 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
View evidence#3
Whistle extreme
22.9cards per game
+1.3 vs 21.5 league avg
Sample: 56 games • Data maturity: High
Christian Dingert averages 22.9 cards per game (+1.3 vs league) across 56 games, the largest whistle delta among 50+ game refs.
View evidence#4
Ref outlier
-0.4Scoring delta
vs 3.2 league avg
Sample: 60 games • Data maturity: High
Sascha Stegemann's 60 games average 2.8 combined points (56.7% over 3.2), one of the largest scoring deltas in the pool.
View evidenceThese are descriptive historical associations. They do not establish causation or predict individual games.