BUNDESLIGA ·
Evidence-first read: conclusion first, then methodology, measured deltas, and sample limits.
Conclusion
Sascha Stegemann runs -0.4 on combined scoring
Sascha Stegemann's 60 games average 2.8 combined points (56.7% over 2.9), one of the largest scoring deltas in the pool.
Rule and category
ref outlier
Strong- and moderate-confidence patterns only. Ranked by effect size within each tier.
Evidence
Measured deltas in sample
- Scoring delta: -0.4 (vs 3.2 league avg)
- Over benchmark: 56.7% (60 games)
- Avg flags: 21.1 (-0.4 vs league)
Related context
Profiles and splits to verify
Follow linked officials and teams to see whether adjacent samples support or contradict this pattern. Unresolved splits stay descriptive until sample gates clear.
Uncertainty
Sample and limits
Sample: 60 games over 5 seasons (2021–2026)
Historical context
Where this sits in the dataset
Ranked with other BUNDESLIGA findings by effect size and sample depth. Use the tendency index and team-with-official history table for broader crew history after reading the measured deltas above.
- Scoring delta
- -0.4
- vs 3.2 league avg
- Over benchmark
- 56.7%
- 60 games
- Avg flags
- 21.1
- -0.4 vs league
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →