Miami Heat
Every Heat game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Heat are 431-389 (52.6%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
431-389 (52.6%)
vs. opp avg .503 · baseline 204-206 · +19.2 above avg
Opponent tiers ranked by season-end win% within each season. Schedule context uses the same Heat sample as the record above.
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (2460) exceed 820 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
How Miami Heat compares in tight final-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores, not last-two-minute reports.
625 of 820 games match this window
Avg combined points
Avg fouls
Over rate
Over benchmark: 222.7 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 820 total games in sample
Ref×team W-L from Basketball-Reference (2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26). Foul and scoring from NBA Stats API game logs.
