NBA referee stats and assignments
NBA referee #51
NBA
Low game-to-game volatility
Historically associated with near-average scoring, near-average fouls volume, reduced late-game whistle frequency.
Typical historical game environment associated with this official. Descriptive history only.
Near-average scoring environment
High evidence
Combined points sit close to the league average (222.3).
League average 222.3 combined points
Near-average fouls volume
High evidence
Fouls volume tracks the league baseline (40.7, -0.3).
League average 41 fouls
Standout Celtics split
Limited evidence
Celtics is 17-2 (89.5%) across 19 games with this official, +29.3 percentage points above the team baseline (60.2%).
Team baseline 60.2% across 410 games
Fewer late-game whistles
High evidence
In close finishes, whistle rate historically drops versus earlier periods after intentional-foul filtering.
Late-game profile: Swallows Whistle
Low game-to-game volatility
High evidence
Consistency score 8/10 on whistle volume across the scouting sample window.
Descriptive stability of whistle volume, not a market forecast
Multi-season sample on file
High evidence
Profile spans 10 seasons in this dataset (2016-17–2025-26).
Scoring, whistle, and stability context from this official's verified sample versus league averages. Descriptive history only. Window: 2021-2026.
Whistle volume, penalty disposition, and high-leverage game-state tendencies.
49
Near-average foul-call profile
Official Aaron Smith profiles as a game-flow (high subjective ratio) over the last 50 games. Whistle volume stays relatively stable in high-stakes settings.
Late-game whistle tendency versus earlier periods. Zero on the scale is the neutral / no-shift anchor for this official (same whistle rate late as earlier), not a league average and not a betting recommendation.
Each row compares a team's win rate with this official to that team's overall win rate in the same dataset window (2016-17 to 2025-26). Sorted by absolute delta. Descriptive history only - not a measure of cause. Minimum 8 shared games per row.
| Team | Games | W-L with official | Team baseline | Delta (pp) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Celtics | 19 | 17-2 (89.5%) | 60.2% | Thin | |
 Trail Blazers | 11 | 2-9 (18.2%) | 38.8% | Thin | |
 Clippers | 12 | 9-3 (75.0%) | 55.9% | Thin | |
 Spurs | 17 | 4-13 (23.5%) | 42.4% | Thin | |
 Lakers | 11 | 8-3 (72.7%) | 55.1% | Thin | |
 Pistons | 14 | 3-11 (21.4%) | 38.5% | Thin | |
 Hawks | 15 | 5-10 (33.3%) | 50.2% | Thin | |
 Bulls | 13 | 7-6 (53.8%) | 37.6% | Thin | |
 Jazz | 13 | 7-6 (53.8%) | 38.0% | Thin | |
 Heat | 21 | 9-12 (42.9%) | 54.4% | Thin | |
 Raptors | 17 | 6-11 (35.3%) | 46.3% | Thin | |
 Knicks | 17 | 8-9 (47.1%) | 58.0% | Thin |
Season timeline of archetype and late-game sensitivity, with detailed metrics below.
| Season | Style bucket derived from procedural vs. subjective foul mix and game-flow impact. Helps frame whether this ref tends to let play breathe or enforce structure. | Foul Ratio | How much an official's whistle rate shifts in close, late-game situations compared with the rest of the game. Positive values suggest they tighten up under pressure. | 1-10 rating of how predictable this official's whistle volume is game to game. Higher scores mean steadier pacing; lower scores flag more volatile totals markets. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2024-25 | Game-Flow Manager | 0.11 | -53% | 8/10 |
| 2023-24 | Game-Flow Manager | 0.11 | -50% | 8/10 |
| 2022-23 | Game-Flow Manager | 0.11 | -49% | 8/10 |
| 2021-22 | Game-Flow Manager | 0.11 | -50% | 9/10 |
| 2020-21 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2019-20 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2018-19 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2017-18 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
| 2016-17 | Insufficient data (0 games, fewer than 10 required) | |||
Explore officials who frequently work with this official or show similar historical officiating patterns.
Officials who have appeared on the same crew most often in the available dataset.
Similarity is descriptive and based on available historical metrics. It does not imply identical decision-making.
Pre-Game Context
Refficacy Dimensions
This officialLeague norm (50)
How often this crew whistles during opponent scoring runs.
Combined scoring in this crew's games versus league average.
Contact and administrative whistle share relative to league norms.
3 metrics excluded due to insufficient event data
Index scores computed from 50 logged games in analysis window
Quick compare
Scoring and foul totals come from NBA Stats API game logs. Ref×team win-loss records come from Basketball-Reference. Team foul splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the home page.
Ref×team W-L from Basketball-Reference (2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26). Foul and scoring from NBA Stats API game logs.