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Kevin Cutler

#34
386 games analyzedSeasons 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26Updated Jul 7, 2026, 11:16 p.m.

Ref×team win-loss is from Basketball-Reference; foul, scoring, and ATS/O-U splits may use simulated or estimated data.

General stats

Closing lineThe spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark.The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. Records use per-game closing lines where available.

Games
386
Home team W/LStraight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.Straight-up wins and losses for the home team in games this ref worked; who won, ignoring the spread.
199-187
51.6%
Home team ATSAgainst the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover.Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover.
197-189
51.0%
Avg home score
111.4
Avg road score
111.3
Home avg marginAverage home score minus away score in this ref’s games; positive means home teams outscored visitors on average.Average home score minus away score in this ref’s games; positive means home teams outscored visitors on average.
0
Avg total score
222.7
+0.3 vs league
Fouls per game
41.1
+0.1 vs league
Over rate (225 proxy)Share of this crew’s games where combined scoring beat the benchmark (225 when no sportsbook total is available).Share of this crew’s games where combined scoring beat the benchmark (225 when no sportsbook total is available).
72.0%

Over / underDid both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off?Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off?

Line rangeGames grouped by what the closing total was (e.g. 220–229.5). Shows how often the actual score went over that line in each bucket.Games grouped by what the closing total was (e.g. 220–229.5). Shows how often the actual score went over that line in each bucket.RecordHit rateWin percentage for that record (wins ÷ all decisions, including pushes where listed).Win percentage for that record (wins ÷ all decisions, including pushes where listed).
Overall278-10872.0%
Under 200--
200–209.544-1969.8%
210–219.5113-3675.8%
220–229.5114-5069.5%
230+--

Spread: home favorite / underdogThe same ATS record broken into groups, by spread size and by whether the home team was the favorite or underdog.The same ATS record broken into groups, by spread size and by whether the home team was the favorite or underdog.

SpreadHome favWhen the home team was the favorite (negative spread), how often did they cover ATS?When the home team was the favorite (negative spread), how often did they cover ATS?Home dogWhen the home team was the underdog (positive spread), how often did they cover ATS?When the home team was the underdog (positive spread), how often did they cover ATS?
0–4.521-4759-32
5–9.524-6264-13
10+3-2926-6

Tight-game proxy

How Kevin Cutler compares in competitive late-game windows vs full games. Proxy windowsA competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels.A competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels., not official NBA L2M reports.

Close games (≤5 pt margin)

Final margin within five points, a proxy for competitive late-game minutes. Not true last-two-minute (L2M) play-by-play data.

289 of 386 games match this window

Derived from historical game logs · proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play

MetricClose games (≤5 pt margin)Full gameΔ vs full
Avg combined pts224.1222.7+1.4
Avg fouls4141.1-0.1
Over rate55.4%50.0%+5.4 pts

Over benchmark: 222.4 combined points · Seasons: 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 386 total games in sample

Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)

Games where the closing spread was within 5.5 points; often stay tight through the fourth quarter. Spread lines may be estimated where sportsbook closing lines are unavailable.

180 of 386 games match this window

Derived from historical game logs · proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play

MetricPregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)Full gameΔ vs full
Avg combined pts221.9222.7-0.8
Avg fouls41.241.1+0.1
Over rate46.7%50.0%-3.3 pts

Over benchmark: 222.4 combined points · Seasons: 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 386 total games in sample

How to read this profile

ATSAgainst the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover.Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Over / underDid both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off?Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use closing linesThe spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark.The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. Where sportsbook closing lines are unavailable, ATS/O/U splits use estimated lines. Team foul splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the home page.

Ref×team W-L from Basketball-Reference (2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26). Foul, scoring, and ATS/O-U splits use simulated or estimated data.