Goals vs average
2.6
-0.2 vs league average
193 games
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Chris Kavanagh
EPL referee stats and assignments
EPL referee
EPL official profile
Chris Kavanagh
Referee · Premier League
Cards vs average
21.2
-0.3 vs league average
193 games
Close-game scoring
2.1
-0.5 vs league in tight games
114 close games
How games feel
Typical historical game environment associated with this official. Descriptive history only.
Near-average scoring environment
High evidence
Combined goals sit close to the league average (2.6).
League average 2.9 combined goals
Near-average cards volume
High evidence
Cards volume tracks the league baseline (3.6, +0.0).
League average 3.6 cards
Standout Southampton split
Limited evidence
Southampton is 4-4 (50.0%) across 8 games with this official, +35.1 percentage points above the team baseline (14.9%).
Team baseline 14.9% across 114 games
Fewer late-game whistles
High evidence
In close finishes, whistle rate historically drops versus earlier periods after intentional-foul filtering.
Late-game profile: Swallows Whistle
Moderate game-to-game volatility
High evidence
Whistle volume varies moderately game to game in the scouting sample window.
Descriptive stability of whistle volume, not a market forecast
Multi-season sample on file
High evidence
Profile spans 10 seasons in this dataset (2016-17–2025-26).
Team effects versus baseline
Win rate with this official compared with each team's overall win rate in the same seasons on file (2016-17 to 2025-26). A positive delta means the team wins more often with this official assigned; a negative delta means less often. Rows are sorted by the largest absolute gaps. Descriptive history only - not proof of cause. Minimum 8 shared games per row.
| Team | Games | W-L with official | Team baseline | Delta (pp) | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Nottingham Forest | 10 | 6-4 (60.0%) | 31.6% | Thin | |
 Southampton | 8 | 4-4 (50.0%) | 23.7% | Thin | |
 Crystal Palace | 11 | 6-5 (54.5%) | 31.3% | Thin | |
 West Ham United | 23 | 12-11 (52.2%) | 33.7% | Thin | |
 Everton | 17 | 9-8 (52.9%) | 34.5% | Thin | |
 Tottenham Hotspur | 20 | 13-7 (65.0%) | 49.2% | Thin | |
 Fulham | 11 | 5-6 (45.5%) | 30.7% | Thin | |
 Liverpool | 30 | 23-7 (76.7%) | 62.6% | Moderate | |
 Chelsea | 20 | 13-7 (65.0%) | 51.3% | Thin | |
 Burnley | 18 | 7-11 (38.9%) | 25.3% | Thin | |
 Leeds United | 12 | 5-7 (41.7%) | 29.6% | Thin | |
 Brighton | 19 | 8-11 (42.1%) | 31.6% | Thin |
Historical environment
Scoring, whistle, and stability context from this official's verified sample versus league averages. Descriptive history only. Window: 2021-2026.
League comparison
Combined score
Official 2.6Baseline 2.9-0.3 vs leagueper game
Cards+0.0 vs league
Whistle detail
Whistle profile
Whistle volume, penalty disposition, and high-leverage game-state tendencies.
50
Near-average card-call profile
Administrative rate (freq)4.7+0.0 vs avg
Impact score (leverage-weighted)Withheld - needs 15 high-leverage subjective events (0 recorded)
Stability
- Sample size
- 193 games
- Seasons on file
- 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Officiating style
Official Chris Kavanagh profiles as a game-flow (high subjective ratio) over the last 50 games. Whistle volume stays relatively stable in high-stakes settings.
- 78% subjective vs 22% procedural whistle mix.
- Not pressure-sensitive in the last 50 games.
Win/loss and line history
General stats
- Games
- 193
- Avg combined goals
- 2.6
- -0.3 vs league avg
- Games over 2.5 goals
- 49.2%
- Combined beat 2.5 benchmark
- Flags per game
- 21.2
- -0.3 vs league avg
- Seasons
- 10 seasons
Pressure
Late-game whistle tendency versus earlier periods. Zero on the scale is the neutral / no-shift anchor for this official (same whistle rate late as earlier), not a league average and not a betting recommendation.
Tight-game proxy
Related officials
Explore officials who frequently work with this official or show similar historical officiating patterns.
Officials with similar historical profiles
Similarity is descriptive and based on available historical metrics. It does not imply identical decision-making.
- 45.7% over · -0.3 whistlesimilar whistle tendency
- 50.0% over · +0.3 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
- 47.9% over · +0.2 whistlesimilar over rate · similar whistle tendency
Pre-Game Context
Refficacy Dimensions
Referee Efficacy Radar
This officialLeague norm (50)
- Run stoppages60 index
How often this crew whistles during opponent scoring runs.
- Scoring pace49 index
Combined scoring in this crew's games versus league average.
- Whistle mix63 index
Contact and administrative whistle share relative to league norms.
3 metrics excluded due to insufficient event data
Index scores computed from 50 logged games in analysis window
How to read this profile
Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. ATS/O-U results are shown only where external closing-line data is available. Team penalty splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the EPL home page.
Goals, fouls, and cards from football-data.co.uk match archives (3800 games, 10 seasons). Over/under vs the 2.5-goal line. 0 rows skipped. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.