The strongest verified ref pattern for the Aces in the current sample.
WNBA05/14
Ref×team split · N=10
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Las Vegas Aces compares in competitive late-game windows vs full games. (Based on official box scores, not L2M reports).
Close games (≤5 pt margin)
21 of 84 games match this window
Avg combined pts
Late-game avg
164.8
Season avg
165.8
Pressure impact
-1.0
Avg fouls
Late-game avg
36.3
Season avg
33.8
Pressure impact
+2.5
Over rate
Late-game avg
42.9%
Season avg
48.8%
Pressure impact
-5.9 pts
Over benchmark: 165 combined points · Seasons: 2024-25, 2025-26 · 84 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
84 of 84 games match this window
Avg combined pts
Late-game avg
165.8
Season avg
165.8
Pressure impact
+0.0
Avg fouls
Late-game avg
33.8
Season avg
33.8
Pressure impact
+0.0
Over rate
Late-game avg
48.8%
Season avg
48.8%
Pressure impact
+0.0 pts
Over benchmark: 165 combined points · Seasons: 2024-25, 2025-26 · 84 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Aces games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Aces went 57-27 (67.9%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: who gets called more. A positive number means opponents are whistled more often than the Aces.
528 WNBA games from ESPN with scores, foul totals, and referee crews. Matrix: 438/467 ref×team pairs with 3+ games. 3 games skipped (no officials listed). Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.