Every Watford game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Watford are 50-38-102 (26.3%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Jonathan Moss has the most Watford games in this sample (15).
Qualified refs in this table account for 153 of 190 team matches (81%) in this sample. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Watford compares in one-goal matches vs the full sample. Based on verified match results.
Close games (≤1 goal margin)
111 of 190 games match this window
Avg combined goals
Close-match avg
2.3
Season avg
2.8
Pressure impact
-0.5
Avg cards
Close-match avg
23.1
Season avg
22.5
Pressure impact
+0.6
Over rate
Close-match avg
46.8%
Season avg
55.3%
Pressure impact
-8.5 pp
Over benchmark: 2.8 combined goals · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 190 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Watford games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Watford went 50-38-102 (26.3%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: who gets called more. A positive number means opponents are whistled more often than the Watford.
Goals, fouls, and cards from football-data.co.uk match archives (3800 games, 10 seasons). Over/under vs the 2.5-goal line. 0 rows skipped. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
