Every Red Storm game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Red Storm are 132-65 (67.0%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Brian O'Connell has the most Red Storm games in this sample (39).
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (488) exceed 197 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How St. John's Red Storm compares in tight final-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores, not last-two-minute reports.
Close games (≤5 pt margin)
51 of 197 games match this window
Avg combined points
Tight-game avg
151.4
Season avg
151
Pressure impact
+0.4
Avg fouls
Tight-game avg
35.3
Season avg
34.6
Pressure impact
+0.7
Over rate
Tight-game avg
56.9%
Season avg
63.5%
Pressure impact
-6.6 pp
Over benchmark: 145.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 197 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Red Storm games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Red Storm went 132-65 (67.0%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: who gets called more. A positive number means opponents are whistled more often than the Red Storm.
Scores, fouls, and referee crews from ESPN (9885 games across 80 tracked programs, 6047 with sportsbook totals). Coverage: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26. Matrix: 4078/8349 ref×team pairs with 3+ games. 69 games skipped (no officials listed). 0 games skipped (outside live conference gate). Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
53 of 197 games match this window
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
153.2
Season avg
151
Pressure impact
+2.2
Avg fouls
Toss-up avg
34.5
Season avg
34.6
Pressure impact
-0.1
Over rate
Toss-up avg
69.8%
Season avg
63.5%
Pressure impact
+6.3 pp
Over benchmark: 145.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 197 total games in sample