Analytics and intelligence, bias modeling for the 3rd team on the court.
Ranked NCAA Basketball officiating patterns from the Ref Watch dataset, with effect sizes, sample sizes, and links to evidence.
6 high-confidence findings
League baseline
152.8 combined points34.9 fouls called per gamebenchmark 151.8 (O/U comparison threshold)
#1
League trend
Sample: 3,395 games • Data maturity: High
152.8 pts2025-26 avg total
1,702 games
Year-over-year context from 6 seasons (9,885 total games). League-wide baselines, not ref-specific. Sample depth is strong (100+ games in this finding).
#2
Whistle extreme
30.6fouls per game
-3.3 vs 33.8 league avg
Sample: 450 games • Data maturity: High
Roger Ayers averages 30.6 fouls per game (-3.3 vs league) across 450 games, the largest whistle delta among 50+ game refs.
View evidence#3
Ref outlier
92/139Over refs
50+ games each
Sample: 139 games • Data maturity: High
Among officials with 50+ games, 92 of 139 beat the 145.3-point benchmark in a majority of their own games.
View evidence#4
Ref outlier
36.0%Under benchmark
100 games
Sample: 100 games • Data maturity: High
36.0% of Tyler Kumpf's 100 games finish under 145.3 combined points, 14.0 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
View evidence#5
Ref outlier
62.7%Over benchmark
110 games
Sample: 110 games • Data maturity: High
62.7% of Mike Littlewood's 110 games finish over 145.3 combined points, 12.7 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
View evidence#6
Ref outlier
+7.7Scoring delta
vs 145.3 league avg
Sample: 115 games • Data maturity: High
K.B. Burdett Jr.'s 115 games average 152.9 combined points (61.7% over 145.3), one of the largest scoring deltas in the pool.
View evidenceThese are descriptive historical associations. They do not establish causation or predict individual games.