Every Wolverines game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Wolverines are 131-72 (64.5%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Paul Szelc has the most Wolverines games in this sample (40).
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (405) exceed 203 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Michigan Wolverines compares in tight final-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores, not last-two-minute reports.
Close games (≤5 pt margin)
54 of 203 games match this window
Avg combined points
Tight-game avg
146.3
Season avg
147.9
Pressure impact
-1.6
Avg fouls
Tight-game avg
34.8
Season avg
33.5
Pressure impact
+1.3
Over rate
Tight-game avg
46.3%
Season avg
53.7%
Pressure impact
-7.4 pp
Over benchmark: 145.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 203 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
56 of 203 games match this window
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
143.5
Season avg
147.9
Pressure impact
-4.4
Avg fouls
Toss-up avg
31.7
Season avg
33.5
Pressure impact
-1.8
Over rate
Toss-up avg
44.6%
Season avg
53.7%
Pressure impact
-9.1 pp
Over benchmark: 145.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 203 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Wolverines games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Wolverines went 131-72 (64.5%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: who gets called more. A positive number means opponents are whistled more often than the Wolverines.
Scores, fouls, and referee crews from ESPN (9885 games across 80 tracked programs, 6047 with sportsbook totals). Coverage: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26. Matrix: 4078/8349 ref×team pairs with 3+ games. 69 games skipped (no officials listed). 0 games skipped (outside live conference gate). Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.