Every Buffaloes game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Buffaloes are 119-86 (58.0%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
Tony Padilla has the most Buffaloes games in this sample (31).
Officials with enough games overlap across crews; combined team-official games (358) exceed 205 unique team matches. Table lists refs with 8+ games.
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Colorado Buffaloes compares in tight final-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores, not last-two-minute reports.
Close games (≤5 pt margin)
51 of 205 games match this window
Avg combined points
Tight-game avg
146.3
Season avg
144.2
Pressure impact
+2.1
Avg fouls
Tight-game avg
34.5
Season avg
34.1
Pressure impact
+0.4
Over rate
Tight-game avg
49.0%
Season avg
47.8%
Pressure impact
+1.2 pp
Over benchmark: 145.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 205 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Buffaloes games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Buffaloes went 119-86 (58.0%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: who gets called more. A positive number means opponents are whistled more often than the Buffaloes.
Scores, fouls, and referee crews from ESPN (9885 games across 80 tracked programs, 6047 with sportsbook totals). Coverage: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26. Matrix: 4078/8349 ref×team pairs with 3+ games. 69 games skipped (no officials listed). 0 games skipped (outside live conference gate). Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
58 of 205 games match this window
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
140.4
Season avg
144.2
Pressure impact
-3.8
Avg fouls
Toss-up avg
32.9
Season avg
34.1
Pressure impact
-1.2
Over rate
Toss-up avg
39.7%
Season avg
47.8%
Pressure impact
-8.1 pp
Over benchmark: 145.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 205 total games in sample