#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Lecce compares in one-goal matches vs the full sample. Based on verified match results.
Close games (≤1 goal margin)
108 of 148 games match this window
Avg combined goals
Close-match avg
1.9
Season avg
2.2
Pressure impact
-0.3
Avg cards
Close-match avg
13.9
Season avg
14.3
Pressure impact
-0.4
Over rate
Close-match avg
31.5%
Season avg
35.8%
Pressure impact
-4.3 pp
Over benchmark: 2.4 combined goals · Seasons: 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 148 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Lecce games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: Lecce went 32-73 (30.5%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: who gets called more. A positive number means opponents are whistled more often than Lecce.
Scores, fouls, cards, and referee assignments from ESPN (1569 games, 197 with sportsbook totals). Referee coverage only where ESPN lists gameInfo.officials (2021-22 onward); games without referee names are excluded entirely. football-data.co.uk I1 CSVs lack a Referee column and are not used. Matrix: 490/962 ref×team pairs with 3+ games. 331 games skipped (no official listed).
