#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Empoli compares in one-goal matches vs the full sample. Based on verified match results.
Close games (≤1 goal margin)
83 of 122 games match this window
Avg combined goals
Close-match avg
1.9
Season avg
2.3
Pressure impact
-0.4
Avg cards
Close-match avg
25.7
Season avg
25.8
Pressure impact
-0.1
Over rate
Close-match avg
28.9%
Season avg
39.3%
Pressure impact
-10.4 pp
Over benchmark: 2.4 combined goals · Seasons: 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 122 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Empoli games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: Empoli went 27-58 (31.8%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: who gets called more. A positive number means opponents are whistled more often than Empoli.
Scores, fouls, cards, and referee assignments from ESPN (1569 games, 197 with sportsbook totals). Referee coverage only where ESPN lists gameInfo.officials (2021-22 onward); games without referee names are excluded entirely. football-data.co.uk I1 CSVs lack a Referee column and are not used. Matrix: 490/962 ref×team pairs with 3+ games. 331 games skipped (no official listed).
