SERIEA ·
Evidence-first read: conclusion first, then methodology, measured deltas, and sample limits.
Conclusion
Davide Massa leads the pool on under frequency
36.2% of Davide Massa's 69 games finish under 2.4 combined goals, 13.8 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
Rule and category
ref outlier
Personal over rate tracks how often this official's games clear the fixed 2.4-goals benchmark. Descriptive frequency, not sportsbook pricing.
Evidence
Measured deltas in sample
- Under benchmark: 36.2% (69 games)
- Delta vs baseline: -0.2 goals (vs 2.4 league avg)
Related context
Profiles and splits to verify
Follow linked officials and teams to see whether adjacent samples support or contradict this pattern. Unresolved splits stay descriptive until sample gates clear.
Uncertainty
Sample and limits
Sample: 69 games over 5 seasons (2021–2026)
Historical context
Where this sits in the dataset
Ranked with other SERIEA findings by effect size and sample depth. Use the tendency index and team-with-official history table for broader crew history after reading the measured deltas above.
- Under benchmark
- 36.2%
- 69 games
- Delta vs baseline
- -0.2 goals
- vs 2.4 league avg
Methodology
- Findings ranked by effect size × √sample size with category deduplication.
- Sample gates: 30+ ref games, 8+ team splits, 30+ ATS decisions where applicable.
- Estimated closing lines disclosed where applicable, not betting advice.
- Full methodology →