NHL research hub
16 findings ranked by effect size and sample size across 2021-10-01 – 2026-03-19. Descriptive historical tendencies, not betting advice.
NHL findings
16 patterns from 41 officials.
41 of 41 officials (100%) trend over 7.3 combined goals. Only 0 refs run the other way.
- Refs trending over
- 41/41
- 100% of pool
- Weighted over rate
- 61.2%
- 50% = neutral baseline
- Games analyzed
- 6,560
- 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
One-goal or OT games: 34.5% beat 7.3 combined goals (3,270 games). All games: 39.8%.
- Close-game over rate
- 34.5%
- 3,270 games
- Full-sample over rate
- 39.8%
- 6,560 games
- Avg combined total
- 7.4
- +0.1 vs 7.2 full avg
Totals go overs 65.6% (143-75) across 218 lined games.
- O/U ATS
- 143-75
- 65.6%
- Sample
- 218
- Min 30 games
- Edge vs 50%
- 15.6 pts
- Leans overs
When Gord Dwyer, TJ Luxmore… work Calgary Flames games, home win rate is 66.7% (9 gp) vs 0.0% on the road (6 gp).
- Home win rate
- 66.7%
- 9 games
- Road win rate
- 0.0%
- 6 games
- Home/road gap
- 67 pts
- Win rate spread
Peter MacDougall, Chris Lee… on Los Angeles Kings: 94.4% over 7.3 goals (18 games).
- Over benchmark
- 94.4%
- 18 games
- Avg goals
- 7.7
- vs 7.3 league avg
- PIM total
- 16.2
- Both teams combined
54.7% of TJ Luxmore's 481 games finish under 7.3 combined goals, 4.7 pts from a neutral 50% baseline.
- Over benchmark
- 54.7%
- 481 games
- Avg combined total
- 7.2
- +0.0 vs league
- Delta vs 50%
- 4.7 pts
- Leans under
Toronto Maple Leafs are 10-0 (100.0%) in 10 games with Ryan Gibbons, vs a team sample baseline of 49.8%.
- Ref×team record
- 10-0
- 10 games · 100.0%
- Team baseline
- 199-201
- 49.8% across 400 gp
- Delta vs baseline
- +50.2 pts
- Above
Philadelphia Flyers are 0-11 (0.0%) in 11 games with Peter MacDougall, vs a team sample baseline of 43.5%.
- Ref×team record
- 0-11
- 11 games · 0.0%
- Team baseline
- 174-226
- 43.5% across 400 gp
- Delta vs baseline
- -43.5 pts
- Below
Ghislain Hebert reaches overtime or shootout 16.5% of the time (36 of 218 games), 6.7 pts below the 23.2% league rate.
- OT/SO rate
- 16.5%
- 36 OT/SO games
- League OT rate
- 23.2%
- Pool baseline
- Sample
- 218
- Min 30 games
Highest: Gord Dwyer on Ottawa Senators (8.1 avg). Lowest: Furman South on San Jose Sharks (6.1 avg).
- Hottest avg
- 8.1
- Gord Dwyer · OTT
- Coldest avg
- 6.1
- Furman South · SJS
- Gap
- 2.0
- vs 7.3 league avg
Jon McIsaac averages 7.7 two-minute minors per team per game (+0.2 vs league) across 660 games.
- Minors per team
- 7.7
- +0.2 vs 7.5 league avg
- Over benchmark
- 62.9%
- 7.3 goals
- Sample
- 660
- Min 30 games
This 4-official crew averages 7.1 combined goals across 484 games, -0.2 vs what those refs produce on other crews.
- Crew avg total
- 7.1
- 484 games · 32 teams
- Dominance delta
- -0.2
- vs members' other crews
- Over benchmark
- 60.3%
- 7.3 goals line
Mark Shewchyk's 1206 games average 7.3 combined goals (62.5% over 7.3), one of the largest scoring deltas in the pool.
- Scoring delta
- +0.1
- vs 7.3 league avg
- Over benchmark
- 62.5%
- 1206 games
- Avg PIM
- 15.1
- +0.1 vs league
103-115 across 218 lined games, 2.8 pts from a neutral 50% split.
- Home ATS
- 103-115
- 47.2%
- Sample
- 218
- Min 30 games
- Edge vs 50%
- 2.8 pts
- Absolute deviation
David Brisebois averages 15.4 PIM per game (+0.4 vs league) across 232 games, the largest whistle delta among 50+ game refs.
- PIM per game
- 15.4
- +0.4 vs 15 league avg
- Over benchmark
- 60.8%
- 7.3 goals
- Sample
- 232
- Min 50 games
From 2024-25 to 2025-26, combined goals per game held steady (+0.0 goals) while penalty minutes stayed flat (+0.0 PIM). Two-minute minors averaged 7.5 per team (+0.0 minors YoY). Overtime rate: 23.2% (-2.0 pts vs prior season).
- 2025-26 avg total
- 7.3 goals
- 1,312 games
- 2024-25 avg total
- 7.3 goals
- 1,312 games
- YoY scoring change
- +0.0
- goals