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Referee-only sample; linesmen excluded from minor and balance metrics.
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How Mike Sullivan compares in competitive late-game windows vs full games. Proxy windowsA competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels.A competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels., not official NBA L2M reports.
Games that required extra time; the clearest late-game pressure proxy in our logs. Includes OT and SO scoring.
4 of 12 games match this window
proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play · partial coverage (4 games in window)
| Metric | Overtime / shootout games | Full game | Δ vs full |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goals | 4.5 | 5.6 | -1.1 |
| Avg PIM | 21.5 | 17 | +4.5 |
| Over rate | 25.0% | 41.7% | -16.7 pts |
Over benchmark: 6.2 combined goals · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 12 total games in sample
Regulation one-goal games plus any overtime, competitive games where third-period whistles matter most.
6 of 12 games match this window
proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play · partial coverage (6 games in window)
| Metric | One-goal or OT games | Full game | Δ vs full |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg combined goals | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 |
| Avg PIM | 16 | 17 | -1.0 |
| Over rate | 33.3% | 41.7% | -8.4 pts |
Over benchmark: 6.2 combined goals · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 12 total games in sample
ATSAgainst the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover.Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Over / underDid both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off?Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use closing linesThe spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark.The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. Where sportsbook closing lines are unavailable, ATS/O/U splits use estimated lines. Team PIM splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the NHL home page.