Simulated NFL data. Schedules, crews, penalty splits, and betting stats are not verified against official records. Methodology

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David Moore

#124
897 games analyzedSeasons 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26Updated Jul 8, 2026, 3:34 p.m.

Preview dataset, simulated schedules, crews, penalty splits, and lines. Do not treat ref×team or betting stats as verified against official records.

General stats

Games
897
Avg combined points
46.2
+0.4 vs league avg
Games over 46.3 pts
50.6%
Combined beat 46.3 benchmark
Flags per game
16.9
+3.9 vs league avg
Seasons
2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26
Spread record
N/A
No spread data yet

Late-game proxy

How David Moore compares in competitive late-game windows vs full games. Proxy windowsA competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels.A competitive late-game window derived from final margins, pregame spreads, or overtime, not official NBA Last Two Minute (L2M) play-by-play reports. Useful for spotting whistle/scoring shifts in tight games, with honest partial-coverage labels., not official NBA L2M reports.

Close games (≤7 pt margin)

7pt proxy

877 of 897 games match this window

Derived from historical game logs · proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play

MetricClose games (≤7 pt margin)Full gameΔ vs full
Avg combined pts46.246.2+0.0
Avg flags16.916.9+0.0
Over rate49.6%49.5%+0.1 pts

Over benchmark: 46.3 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 897 total games in sample

Pregame toss-ups

spread

897 of 897 games match this window

Derived from historical game logs · proxy window, not official L2M play-by-play

MetricPregame toss-upsFull gameΔ vs full
Avg combined pts46.246.2+0.0
Avg flags16.916.9+0.0
Over rate49.5%49.5%+0.0 pts

Over benchmark: 46.3 combined points · Seasons: 2016-17, 2017-18, 2018-19, 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 897 total games in sample

How to read this profile

ATSAgainst the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover.Against the spread: whether the home team beat the sportsbook point spread (not just who won). A home line of −5.5 means the home team must win by 6+ to cover. and Over / underDid both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off?Did both teams’ combined score finish above (over) or below (under) the closing total set by sportsbooks before tip-off? tables use closing linesThe spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark.The spread and total sportsbooks posted near tip-off. ATS and O/U tables here use that number, not our fixed 225 benchmark. per game. Where sportsbook closing lines are unavailable, ATS/O/U splits use estimated lines. Team penalty splits live on team pages. Tonight's assignment signals are on the NFL home page.

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