The strongest verified ref pattern for Nice in the current sample.
Ligue 108/16
Ref×team split · N=10
#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Nice compares in one-goal matches vs the full sample. Based on verified match results.
Close games (≤1 goal margin)
99 of 146 games match this window
Avg combined goals
Close-match avg
2.1
Season avg
2.6
Pressure impact
-0.5
Avg cards
Close-match avg
23.2
Season avg
22.8
Pressure impact
+0.4
Over rate
Close-match avg
38.4%
Season avg
47.3%
Pressure impact
-8.9 pp
Over benchmark: 2.7 combined goals · Seasons: 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 146 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Nice games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: Nice went 59-45 (56.7%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: who gets called more. A positive number means opponents are whistled more often than Nice.
Scores, fouls, cards, and referee assignments from ESPN (1363 games, 132 with sportsbook totals). Referee coverage only where ESPN lists gameInfo.officials (2021-22 onward); games without referee names are excluded entirely. football-data.co.uk I1 CSVs lack a Referee column and are not used. Matrix: 372/518 ref×team pairs with 3+ games. 315 games skipped (no official listed).