#RefWin ratevs baselineClose gamesOpponent whistle volume minus team volume per game. Positive means your team is whistled less (or the opponent more), a favorable minors/flags edge.
How Angers compares in one-goal matches vs the full sample. Based on verified match results.
Close games (≤1 goal margin)
65 of 111 games match this window
Avg combined goals
Close-match avg
2.1
Season avg
2.6
Pressure impact
-0.5
Avg cards
Close-match avg
24.3
Season avg
23.8
Pressure impact
+0.5
Over rate
Close-match avg
36.9%
Season avg
44.1%
Pressure impact
-7.2 pp
Over benchmark: 2.7 combined goals · Seasons: 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 111 total games in sample
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Angers games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: Angers went 25-64 (28.1%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: who gets called more. A positive number means opponents are whistled more often than Angers.
Scores, fouls, cards, and referee assignments from ESPN (1363 games, 132 with sportsbook totals). Referee coverage only where ESPN lists gameInfo.officials (2021-22 onward); games without referee names are excluded entirely. football-data.co.uk I1 CSVs lack a Referee column and are not used. Matrix: 372/518 ref×team pairs with 3+ games. 315 games skipped (no official listed).
