Every Longhorns game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Longhorns are 55-23 (70.5%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
How Texas Longhorns compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
28 of 78 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
59.3
Season avg
56.9
Pressure impact
+2.4
Avg flags
Close-game avg
13.3
Season avg
12.3
Pressure impact
+1.0
Over rate
Close-game avg
50.0%
Season avg
47.4%
Pressure impact
+2.6 pp
Over benchmark: 55.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 78 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
13 of 78 games match this window
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Longhorns games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Longhorns went 55-23 (70.5%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Longhorns.
Scores and penalties from ESPN (1426 live-conference games, 474 with Sidearm officials). Coverage: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26. 692 officials with game-level crew assignments. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
61.7
Season avg
56.9
Pressure impact
+4.8
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
13.5
Season avg
12.3
Pressure impact
+1.2
Over rate
Toss-up avg
53.8%
Season avg
47.4%
Pressure impact
+6.4 pp
Over benchmark: 55.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 78 total games in sample