Every Orange game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Orange are 3-11 (21.4%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
How Syracuse Orange compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
4 of 14 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
55.5
Season avg
50.4
Pressure impact
+5.1
Avg flags
Close-game avg
12.5
Season avg
13.6
Pressure impact
-1.1
Over rate
Close-game avg
50.0%
Season avg
28.6%
Pressure impact
+21.4 pp
Over benchmark: 55.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 14 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
3 of 14 games match this window
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Orange games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Orange went 3-11 (21.4%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Orange.
Scores and penalties from ESPN (1426 live-conference games, 474 with Sidearm officials). Coverage: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26. 692 officials with game-level crew assignments. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
48.3
Season avg
50.4
Pressure impact
-2.1
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
14
Season avg
13.6
Pressure impact
+0.4
Over rate
Toss-up avg
33.3%
Season avg
28.6%
Pressure impact
+4.7 pp
Over benchmark: 55.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 14 total games in sample