Every Panthers game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Panthers are 7-9 (43.8%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
How Pittsburgh Panthers compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
7 of 16 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
60.1
Season avg
54.1
Pressure impact
+6.0
Avg flags
Close-game avg
15.3
Season avg
14.6
Pressure impact
+0.7
Over rate
Close-game avg
71.4%
Season avg
56.3%
Pressure impact
+15.1 pp
Over benchmark: 55.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 16 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
6 of 16 games match this window
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Panthers games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Panthers went 7-9 (43.8%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Panthers.
Scores and penalties from ESPN (1426 live-conference games, 474 with Sidearm officials). Coverage: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26. 692 officials with game-level crew assignments. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
52
Season avg
54.1
Pressure impact
-2.1
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
14.7
Season avg
14.6
Pressure impact
+0.1
Over rate
Toss-up avg
50.0%
Season avg
56.3%
Pressure impact
-6.3 pp
Over benchmark: 55.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 16 total games in sample