Every Cougars game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Cougars are 5-7 (41.7%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
How Houston Cougars compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
7 of 12 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
41.6
Season avg
45.6
Pressure impact
-4.0
Avg flags
Close-game avg
9.9
Season avg
10.6
Pressure impact
-0.7
Over rate
Close-game avg
14.3%
Season avg
16.7%
Pressure impact
-2.4 pp
Over benchmark: 55.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 12 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
3 of 12 games match this window
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Cougars games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Cougars went 5-7 (41.7%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Cougars.
Scores and penalties from ESPN (1426 live-conference games, 474 with Sidearm officials). Coverage: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26. 692 officials with game-level crew assignments. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
57.3
Season avg
45.6
Pressure impact
+11.7
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
13.7
Season avg
10.6
Pressure impact
+3.1
Over rate
Toss-up avg
66.7%
Season avg
16.7%
Pressure impact
+50.0 pp
Over benchmark: 55.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 12 total games in sample