Every Golden Bears game grouped by individual referee. Over this sample the Golden Bears are 4-13 (23.5%); each ref win rate below is compared to that team average.
How California Golden Bears compares in close-margin games vs the full sample. Based on official box scores.
Close games (≤7 pt margin)
12 of 17 games match this window
Avg combined points
Close-game avg
53.2
Season avg
56.6
Pressure impact
-3.4
Avg flags
Close-game avg
14.2
Season avg
13.2
Pressure impact
+1.0
Over rate
Close-game avg
33.3%
Season avg
41.2%
Pressure impact
-7.9 pp
Over benchmark: 55.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 17 total games in sample
Pregame toss-ups (spread ≤5.5)
1 of 17 games match this window
What am I looking at?
Individual refs: stats for one official across all Golden Bears games they worked, even with different partners.
Team baseline: the Golden Bears went 4-13 (23.5%) across this sample. Ref win rates show how they compare to that team average.
Whistle differential: flag differential. A positive number means opponents are flagged more often than the Golden Bears.
Scores and penalties from ESPN (1426 live-conference games, 474 with Sidearm officials). Coverage: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26. 692 officials with game-level crew assignments. Ref game counts rebuilt from DISTINCT game_id in game logs.
Avg combined points
Toss-up avg
38
Season avg
56.6
Pressure impact
-18.6
Avg flags
Toss-up avg
13
Season avg
13.2
Pressure impact
-0.2
Over rate
Toss-up avg
0.0%
Season avg
41.2%
Pressure impact
-41.2 pp
Over benchmark: 55.3 combined points · Seasons: 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24, 2024-25, 2025-26 · 17 total games in sample